Tropical Tidbits is down.

This is so confusing. I hear one day: This is looking good. The next day: Nah, not so much. I read MJO looks like it's moving in the right direction. PNA may be going positive, etc. It's difficult to have any expectations when things seem to change from day to day. I'm sure winter weather lovers are...

….and the GFS once again doesn't remember that it's January....

The GFS seems to be trending warmer and warmer... arghhh!!! It had been getting colder and colder.... the pendulum swings....

The 12Z GEFS (ensemble) suggests much colder air arrives later next week. Those operational runs will flip flop daily at that range. I do see growing signs of a fairly significant pattern change brewing after mid January. The MJO appears to be coming alive and amplifying. I expect a great deal of m...

And....the 12Z goes back to reality.... *poof*!

The 0Z GFS! Holy Moly!!! GFS and Canadian are sniffing major fronts on a week and beyond. Possible mischief on the 19th. A ways off, but we might get winter after all. Still waiting to see if the Euro joins the action. Let us know about the Euro. Thanks. It may have been one time eye candy...06Z ta...

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:33 am

harp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:14 pm The 0Z GFS! Holy Moly!!!

GFS and Canadian are sniffing major fronts on a week and beyond. Possible mischief on the 19th. A ways off, but we might get winter after all.

Still waiting to see if the Euro joins the action.

Let us know about the Euro. Thanks.

The 0Z GFS! Holy Moly!!!

Yeah i wouldnt be surprised if the winter storm showed back up in the models. As the operational GFS still shows a ice storm next week but has pushed it up north into Oklahoma and Arkansas. I wouldnt be surpised if the convegence zone shifted back south into Texas as weve sometimes seen in the past...

The GFS has taken away the frozen stuff. Poof!

I'm in south Louisiana, watching this closely. Many times what SE Texas gets, we get the next day....

The GFS has trended less and less cold air each of the last several runs. As a result, the frozen precip is now gone. It was about the only eye candy we have had this year and was fun while it lasted!

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:48 pm

harp wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:49 pm I'm surprised this place is so quiet considering what the GFS has been hinting at around the 15th/16th of this month.

because it's more than 3 days out. nothing past that is believable anymore...

Ok. This place hasn't had a post in a couple of days. Just thought I would comment.

I'm surprised this place is so quiet considering what the GFS has been hinting at around the 15th/16th of this month.

Interesting stuff. May be a late winter this year according to this. Worth watching since things are so boring at the moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

That's what I thought. Thanks for the response!

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:25 pm Interesting set up coming if you believe the GEFS

Explain, please.

0Z GFS has that sub zero air lined up all along the Canadian border and northern Plains, but it WILL NOT budge south. It's stuck there. Frustrating.

The GFS has been hinting for the last 3 runs or so of a motherload of cold coming down around January 11th. The 12Z run indicates it as well. That's fairly consistent, especially for that far out. Anyone else notice this?