Checking the gauges on harris county flood control, the highest rainfall we've spotted in this band is about 2" per hour.... cold pooling behind this line MAY push it through, sparing us... Hoping the westward progression of that low doesn't effectively stop forward motion of this line.

Any chance this band coming in from the west slows down and trains like it did in Beaumont or Corpus area? Or will this move through by this evening? I guess that is a tough question lol.. This has been pretty difficult to forecast by the NWS I imagine. Yes. That's what we're worried about... that ...

The HRRR shows a possible focus of rain coming closer to our region over next 18hrs.... Not to say that this would cause flooding, but it would cause rain.

The threat for Houston metro will be enhanced by any outflow boundaries which result from this energy cruising up through Wharton and Colorado Counties after Matagorda... Thanks for posting!

mcd0336.gif MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0336 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1215 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 201615Z - 202115Z SUMMARY...TRAINING BAND AND SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG TROUGH AXI...

Remember what Dr. Frank always preaches, " Until a tropical system is completely gone, you always have to have your guard up" . We still have a warm moist atmosphere, low convective temperatures and onshore flow. HGX still has a 70 percent of heavy rain today.. That's very good advice -- ...

I’m probably preaching to the choir, but ... ‪a reminder to those who don’t know: It is scientifically impossible to make a 100% accurate/specific forecast for acute flooding. On a day like this you may see 1” or you could see 10+”. That’s wet roads vs inundated. Chaos theory still rules tropical fo...

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today To me, it looks like we will have more rain than expected. At this point, a bust seems very unlikely unless your benchmark was 6 inches of rain. When models are calling for a foot of rain, anything less than a few inc...

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today No, today was not a bust. We could never commit to specifics due to the inherent uncertainty of tropical forecasting. It downpoured periodically almost exactly as forecast. The the heaviest banding rain may happen Mon...

Stating the obvious, but the next 12hrs will be telling.

So I'm confused I just washed Blake Matthews live on Facebook and he was saying that blob down there wasnt impressive he assured us of that....now we have Brookes saying things could get interesting.. so what do we believe? I’m not making a forecast assurtion in these posts — only suggesting trends...

I agree that the satellite presentation this morning is impressive and honestly a little bit eyebrow raising… I suspect if this convection persists through 2 PM Eastern time ( assuming it’s not purely nocturnal convection ), we will see at least a 40% hatch area in the NHC update. Of course, doing t...

How many inches? Got your attention. If consensus models (averaged separate models) like ICON (see tropicaltidbits.com) are even remotely accurate, the rainfall timing will change by 24hrs delay (M-T instead of S-M) plus totals would go up significantly. Will be interesting to track training potenti...

Hey y'all, just checkin' in. All possibilities on the table. 12z GFS closes off weak low near Brownsville. Even a tiny close-off of pressures could focus rain bands, near wherever that center approaches shore. Low level jet comes into play, and more... So many options still on the table... this is o...

Severe storm warning issued for quarter sized hail.

TEGNA WX Earth Design.png How about that gravity wave set traversing Texas from north to south?? Interesting to see on GOES 16 WV in its interaction with the shortwave coming out of Mexico at this time! (That shortwave I think may be a little punchier than models had indicated for much of the day. ...

What's up, guys. Watching this shortwave being ejected into Texas from Mexico, where there's very little upper level data for the models to process. It may provide, "unexpected" energy and dynamics for the late evening storms. Not sure if models are advertising this as much as it may becom...

Not planting that garden, yet!

I am pleased to announce that our KHOU Weather Forum will be well represented again this year in S Padre Island April 3rd through 7th at the 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference. I also want to personally thank KHOU and particularly Christine DiStadio for allowing me to attend representing our...

Many times, as was mentioned, the daytime high comes at midnight or 12:01am, then it falls all day so by afternoon it's 30 degrees colder than the recorded, "daytime high" graphic shows. Arctic air masses are also -- as has been mentioned -- notoriously under forecast by the models due to ...