djmike wrote:Thats not good for beaumont!!!! We've already received 18"-20" lastnight. Praying no repeat!

No, not good for you at all.

Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too ba...

Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too bad...

Seeing strong rotation and hook echo 25 miles SSW of Bellaire. May pass just west of Fresno in the next 10 min or so. Next in line would be me. Strongest rotation yet.

As for Harvey's center, I'm looking at a loop over the past several hours and don't see any significant movement. It's behaving precisely as predicted - stalling. I'm hearing the thunder from the approaching squall line in SW Houston (south of Meyerland). Doppler radar indicates 2 areas of rotation ...

I'm somewhat surprised at the level of panic across the Houston area. I guess it's hard to make people understand that the possibly 15-20 inches of rain here will be spread out over 4-5 days, and the worst of it may not arrive until next Tuesday or Wednesday. Houston may see up to 1-2 inches per day...

The center will always follow the convection. As the heavy squalls rotate around the storm, the center will keep wobbling toward the heavier convection. It's on track for landfall near (just north of) Corpus Christi.

VERY busy at work today. Have just a minute to check on the forum. Harvey is strengthening rapidly, could well be a Cat 4 when it hits north of Corpus Christi tomorrow night. Big question is how far inland it gets over the weekend. Euro keeps it near the coast, thus not weakening it too much before ...

Interesting to see a 10 degree shift further West with the 12Z Best Track. The Statistical Guidance for 91L may begin to trend more Westward in time. The Dynamical Guidance (ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/Canadian) probably will not change that much in the near term. The NHC had the wrong feature identified befor...

Weak low is present in the central Gulf. Would go with 20% chance of development. Surprised Stacy Stewart didn't mention it in today's outlook, given what we just went through with Emily. Not much model support, but we have to keep a close eye on ANY such features in August/September. It will be mov...

Another tweet from StormGeo here in Houston. Their ensembles-based TRAC guidance remains steady on a landfall near eastern Galveston Island. NHC has adjusted their track west, but not quite as far west as this guidance is indicating. I don't think we'll see any tropical storm-force winds here in Hou...

StormGeo's TRAC guidance (Threatened Regions from Active Cyclones) suggests PTC Three is Texas-bound. Almost all 50 of the ECMWF ensembles take it to Texas. The GFS is all-in for Louisiana. The battle is on! It would have to make landfall west of Houston for us to get much rain. And don't expect any...

The trend is for a stronger ridge across the northern Gulf coast early next week, resulting in a more westerly track of this system. I think it will develop 40-45 mph winds by Sunday night, but the circulation may be too poorly-defined and broad for an upgrade until Monday PM or Tuesday AM. It's not...

Cromagnum wrote:It needs to park somewhere where we can catch up on rain. My yard is already trying to die again.

Careful what you wish for. This type of system could produce over 20" of rain in some areas.

ticka1 wrote:when do you think they will name it an invest?

Probably Saturday, definitely by Sunday. Tomorrow at the earliest. Somewhere between tonight and Sunday.

Looks like the 18Z GFS gave up on the Florida hit. It shifted west with a weaker system heading for northern Mexico, though it has it very weak by then. I still like the Euro best. Was in touch with AFMET today (S2K Forum). He is able to view the private military model that did very well with Hermin...

Is anyone going? I heard from srain, he can't make it.

The 2017 Hurricane Workshop is approaching soon! Looks like they're calling it an "Extreme Weather Ready Expo" this year. Who wants to meet for lunch across the street at the Lake House again?

http://www.hurricaneworkshop.com/

Once again, for the third year in a row, the MS 150 bike ride from Houston to Austin may be plagued by a line of heavy to severe thunderstorms. Latest GFS indicates that the line of showers/storms will impact the La Grange overnight rest stop Saturday night. The rain could be over with by the time t...

Wow! And I'm not even using a monitor with a lot of resolution! Thanks for sharing. It's amazing what else you can see with high-resolution imaging that you can't in other images. Try using the slider on the bottom with a visible image and move the slider left and right quickly. You'll notice all k...