GFS throws what's left of Karen into the western gulf.

GFS also shows a cool front around Oct 4th.

EURO moves the biggest rainfall threat to the east

Channel 2 is giving off the same vibe that Fox 26 was. Lol

It's a TD.Jjust waiting to see if NHC declares one.

1. Updated: Recent satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast has become better defined this morning. The associated thunderstorm activity has also increased and become a little better organized. If these de...

18z euro

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday tonight or Wednesday . Regardless of development, this syste...

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:53 am Link to the NAM etc for those of us that dont know where to get the graphics?

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 91612&fh=1

Leave it to UKMET to shift a bit west

I believe this is now a TD. Should have Barry by tomorrow morning

djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:56 pm Oh we could wake up to a track into texas still. All cards are still on the table. Many many times i have woken up to some big surprises.

Claudette 2003, Debby 2012 ones that had forecast changes.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:03 pm Updated cone from NHC

They didnt really move it much...

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:21 pm I’m on board saying that I’m selling an east of Lafayette solution. Common sense and a couple decades of following these storms tell me that I should go with my gut.

Still sticking with my original prediction

What was your original

djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:13 pm Next track shift. West or east? Thoughts?

East, but it will continue to shift both directions until there is a defined center.

I see Lake Charles has added in gusts near 90 mph and sustained wind speeds near 65 mph.

Many UKMET and EURO ensembles also show a track toward SE Texas.

UKMET comes in around the Brazoria/ Matagorda county line. Strong hurricane.

UKMET has made yet another west shift

Rip76 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:50 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:44 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:42 pm So i guess its safe to say the models are shifting back towards texas?

I'd say further w but not quite Texas. HWRF and the Euro will give us a better idea.

When do they come through?

HWRF just started running.

Euro around 1am

UKMET with a strong hurricane into Galveston.