EPS ensembles... all (but maybe one or two) avoid Louisiana. Yet Laura still looks south of them all. Laura's fast pace westward, a stronger Bermuda ridge the Euro is forecasting, I wouldn't rule the Freeport area out either putting Houston in the dirty quadrant of the storm. Either way, it's an ugl...

Ugly run. Not quite at the coast yet, but looks awfully close to a Galveston hit.

Euro initializing a much stronger Bermuda ridge on this run...

Very Interesting Pretty much ALL 0z GFS ensemble members show Texas now.... And yet the current center is still south of all those ensemble runs. Also of note, the 00z Euro last night compared to now is a good degree south from where it had forecasted to be. 18z Euro is about a hair south from wher...

Based on where RECON is finding the center, it has seemed to take a jog slightly southwest from its last point. Looks like the center is around 22.45N 84.6W which would put it on the extreme southern edge of the 10PM NHC cone. May try and be tugging towards the deeper convection that's off to its so...

GFS remains further south/southwest through it's track in the Gulf than previous runs today, however makes a decent sharp right turn before landfall just near the TX/LA border. All about that turn...

12z Euro initialized well, however, comparing to 06z Euro ensembles to where the actual center is: still on the southern envelope.

Latest ASCAT pass shows center well south of where NHC has it. They have much more data and tools to work from than we do that the public can't see, so they know what they are doing. See what morning brings. WMBas76.png I was just posting this. Mets are battling on twitter whether the center has mo...

00z Euro weaker than last nights, but much further west and stronger than 12/18z.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:41 pm Everytime a model shifts and im taking a shot

You'll be drunk by sunrise then, I imagine.

GSF and Euro are weaker due to more land interaction over Cuba, thus more eastward as what has been pretty much discussed. With Laura being potentially off the southern coast and if it remains west or even wnw south of the coast, I would not put it past me to see Laura on the cusp of becoming a hurr...

If the true center is really south of Cuba (which I'm almost positive it is, radar sure shows it), then the GFS is already too far north with initialization. Though it does initialize pretty much where the NHC has it at.

00z GFS makes landfall in far SW Louisiana, weaker and more eastward than 18z.

Looking at the Cuba radar ( http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif ) it looks like the 'center' may be about ~20-30 miles south of where the NHC has the center in the 10pm update. If so, that is quite a bit off. Pretty perplexed with...

Quite surprised with the sudden shift eastward from the NHC. I think between finding out where Laura's center may redevelop and how it transverses over Cuba would hold them off on making any big changes. While good news for Houston being out of the cone, I also worry the public will start writing th...

As others have stated, I don't think Euro is handling the setup well as it pertains to Marco and of course initializing Laura wrong. Doubtful the NHC will adjust their forecast cone much during the 5pm advisory. If they do, maybe a hair east to account for the blend of the CMC, GFS and Euro. Seems l...

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:17 am So if Laura were to head this way, just say Galveston landfall for a point of reference.

We would be probably looking at Thursday morning timeframe?

I'd give a timeframe anywhere from 8pm Wednesday through 3am Thursday landfall right now.

HMON 00z last night had Galveston. 06z had Port Lavaca. 12z the TX/MX border. 18z Galveston And now 00z tonight just west of Vermilion Bay, LA. Pretty much a full windshield wiper effect. 00z HWRF makes landfall just east of Vermilion Bay, pretty much mirroring the 18z run. Not staying up for the Eu...

Belmer there u are!!! So u think this is a trend or just models still sucking like them have all year lol A trend? Ha. The past 2 days have been absolutely frustrating for everyone involved tracking both Marco and Laura. Right when you think there's a trend the next suite of model runs make you thr...

For everyones sake along the Gulf coast, I believe this time tomorrow night there should be much more clarity on Laura's future so those in its path can start preparing at a higher certainty since there will only be about 3.5 solid days to do so.

GFS further west with a Beaumont landfall at midnight Thursday... stronger than 18z as well. If CMC, HWRF/HMON and Euro show a similar track, then you might see the cone shift a bit further west putting Houston back in the 'cone' at 5am. *Edit to add : HWRF/HMON aren't likely used in NHC forecasting...