00Z EC & 12Z GFS indicate heaviest rain staying north of Houston this weekend. Less than 1" of rain predicted for Houston by them. Fine with me. The models were way underdone last weekend both in C and SE TX. PWS 1.8-2.1 inches support heavy rainfall especially with a front stalling...but ...

Quick question Jeff (since nothing in our weather world is going on). You state, "can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas." I thought we are currently in an El Nino pattern which will be leading into a cold n wet late fall/winter season? That is what I hear all t...

A warm Atlantic (note the impressive warming since June) and a continued warm Gulf of Alaska region support southern plains drought...ie same pattern we have been in for years. Big question is can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas. On a side note...conditions for the 2016...

I think we will see something...at least a TD and maybe a TS. It is mid September and a little bit more of an unusual possible track up from the SSW...but has happened before. Coastal winds will start increasing due to PGF this weekend post front and thus the tides will start to respond. Very low Td...

NO upgrade at 800pm...might as well wait until it is inland now!

Tweet from the Director of the National Hurricane Center (https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/) at 12:50pm EDT on Monday: "Gulf system exemplifies why we’re developing future option to issue TC forecasts and warnings before TC formation. http://ow.ly/2btvEY" Get on with it already...this is a...

Voluntary evacuations of 10 subdivisions below Lewis Creek Dam.

See www.mctxoem.org for details and map of affected areas

About as serious of a flood threat as this area has seen in a while. Global models really pound the area with high QPF. EURO shows upwards of 7 inches over Houston area Sunday PM-Monday...ouch. GFS shows 2-3 inches. With rivers at their breaking points, and lakes full flooding is almost certain even...

KCLL special sounding will you interpret that for us novices Andrew - muchas gracias Yea, it basically shows an overall favorable profile for all three types of severe weather. Plenty of CAPE for strong updrafts for hail (and wind) with a vertical wind profile that supports the possibility for torn...

QPF has been pumped up some this evening...2-4" widespread with isolated up to 6. HIRES guidance really likes the US 59 corridor from Wharton to Houston for some hefty totals. Rainfall of this magnitude could put the San Bernard and Tres Palacios into flood and result in some pretty good rises ...

EWX was within their warning time window...issued at 1030am this morning or a full 12 hours likely before the onset of any freezing precip and both a noon and evening news cycle. They could have maybe put out a watch yesterday...but there was uncertainty and even still some this evening with accumul...

Currently 44 at CLL. 18Z GFS did not have CLL reaching 43 until 09Z Monday morning. It was forecasting a 00Z temperature of 51 (off by 7 degrees).

12Z NAM was forecasting a 00Z temp of 51 also and CLL not reaching 44 until 12Z Mon. OUCH.

5.24 recorded down in Brazoria County on the Brazos River at SH 35...

Dewpoint at Wharton has increased from 21 to 30 (+9) between 500pm and 835pm. Surface temp. has fallen from 40-38 (-2) in the same time period. As the models suggested...Td rises and T does not fall...saturating through raising the dewpoint not cooling the air temp (warm air advection) not wet bulb ...

Surface warm air advection is in progress over SE TX...note wind direction is from the south. Td at Palacios is up to 32...Td's will rise tonight even with no precip. Expect the temps. to only cool maybe 2-3 degrees. South winds usually do not promote much if any temp fall especially with thickening...

Just got a report of snow flurries on St. Simons Island, Georgia! Ocean effect... first memory of that since 1989... Okay, so what do you guys think about this wet bulbing potential. With 40°F with an 11° dew point, if it starts raining we're talking about a roughly 8-10° temperature drop potential...

Ok I'm in new caney..so would I be worried about wet bulbing and getting freezing rain here? I doubt you will have any impacts either morning. Could drop to 32 for a short period of time...but think any precip will be very light. Note: I encountered about 3 ice pellets and maybe 25 rain drops on th...

Have done a fairly extensive review of cross sections/forecast soundings this evening. General lack of QPF in the FRI PM/SAT AM looks to prevent much freezing rain threat for HOU...maybe and that is a big maybe for CLL and UTS could see some ZR. Td's are very low and soundings show slow saturation o...

Unfortunately, there seems to be no sign of moisture. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. Very little moisture to none until Thursday along the Rio Grande and then spreading east across TX Friday. Air mass modification will be ongoing with onshore winds returning by Friday...likely some of the coldest...

A quick look at observations across Central and E Texas into Western Louisiana show near or just below freezing temperatures at Georgetown near Austin. Temperatures in Lufkin are near 34-36 and in Jasper into the Piney Woods E Texas and Western Louisiana near Dequincy temperatures are near the 34-3...