jamelyn wrote:My daughter is supposed to drive here from Lubbock in the 22nd. Wondering if she should leave a day early

If it was my daughter, I'd strongly recommend driving on Thursday vs. Friday. She may run into heavy freezing rain in central Texas Friday afternoon.

18Z GFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for central to NE Texas and southern Arkansas. Over 3" of freezing rain and sleet - not snow. I'd be very cautious about taking that ECMWF snowfall map at face value. I'm not sure how well it does discriminating between snow and freezing rain/sleet in thes...

Wxman57, will this potentially extend into Louisiana? I lived in Oklahoma for 8 years in my youth and I remember ice storms. Believe me, people, you do NOT want an ice storm! It's possible that there could be freezing rain in south Louisiana and SE TX (I assume that's what you mean by "Louisia...

This potential winter weather event looks more terrifying than exciting. Going weeks without power and unable to travel anywhere doesn't sound like fun, to me. What's most troubling is that every GFS run indicates a significant warm nose aloft and only a very shallow surface freezing layer. That mea...

12z makes it 19 in a row showing an arctic front late next week. Comes in much faster too. Arrives Friday morning with a storm arriving at the same time. However, the 12Z GFS doesn't drop temps below freezing in Houston with the front. Upper 30s to low 50s for temps next weekend through Christmas, ...

The American model (GFS) has been predicting another cold outbreak for around the 24th, possibly with sub-freezing air at the surface along with precipitation. However, the GFS shows well above freezing temps just above the surface, which would indicate sleet/freezing rain vs. snow. Keep in mind tha...

Went to bed at 1am and the snow was light. Got up a few times between 1 and 7am but didn't see much outside. Looked out at 7am to the images below. First picture is a panorama. http://wxman57.com/images/Snow-Pano.JPG http://wxman57.com/images/Snow-Front.JPG http://wxman57.com/images/Snow-Back.JPG

Looks like the 18Z NAM is swinging some stronger vorticity thru the area around Midnight which I'm guessing is related to the uptick in intensity we are seeing on this run. Yes, that's the main upper-level disturbance rotating across our area. With even colder air aloft, it's a perfect setup for sn...

The 18Z U of H sounding was sent to the Houston/Galveston NWS office. I've been in contact with Dan Reilly over there. It does look like the rain will change to snow tonight. The 18Z NAM snow totals map (below) is impressive, but I suspect it isn't taking into consideration the warm ground and the m...

This is a reference page for the Skew T that was posted. That's right. The balloon confirmed that the atmospheric profile matched the left image (snow). As I posted elsewhere: Sleet occurs when precipitation encounters an above-freezing layer on its way down, followed by a layer of sub-freezing air...

Just had a look at the 18Z sounding from U of H. Freezing level is at about 2500 ft (768m). Entire precip column is sub-freezing, as the models were predicting. No warm nose. Will have a skew-T shortly. This doesn't mean we'll awaken to a winter wonderland across Houston, just that we have a good ch...

Note that we have decided on 2 balloon launches today. First will be at 18Z, second near 03Z. They're launched from the University of Houston. Data will be sent to the local NWS office. I'll post it here, too. I'm interested in seeing how well the models are handling the temps aloft.

Just an FYI. As Srain and Wxman 57 have told us in the past, this is still tricky for pro mets all over. It takes all the variables to be just right for this to happen. Many folks ( if this does not happen) will scream bust. Just giving a gentle reminder that it takes all ingredients in the mix to ...

Both the WRF and NAM are coming in colder aloft and with heavier precip. I've seen many such events over my nearly 4 decades as a meteorologist here, but I've rarely seen the models predicting such cold air aloft. Usually they indicate a warm nose (above-freezing layer) between 5000-10,000 feet up t...

Yes but that low that is supposed to form will keep mostly all the moisture along the coastal counties, correct? That's always the dilemma. With coastal lows and snow events, the heavier precip is across coastal counties. However, I think there will be enough moisture this evening that you will see...

As the atmosphere is getting right for some snow flurries, right on cue the moisture shield is fading southward out of Montgomery County. Shocker. There is supposed to be a low that develops later this afternoon/evening that should provide lift for more precipitation. Yes, the main mid-level trough...

One thing I keep seeing on TV is that we could have some sleet, POSSIBLY mixed with a few snowflakes. However, the vertical profile is definitely not one that could produce sleet (unless all the models are incorrect). Sleet requires a shallow layer of freezing air near the surface, with warmer (abov...

I think that there's an excellent chance that coastal counties will see snowflakes tonight. However, a warm ground combined with temps above freezing won't allow it to hang around long. It could accumulate briefly on cars and some grassy surfaces, but streets should remain above freezing and free of...

This is the biggest threat out there in the tropics at present. Could move across the NE Caribbean as nearly a hurricane on Tuesday and in the eastern Bahamas as a hurricane next Friday. Not looking like a Gulf threat, but could be a major hurricane threat to the East U.S. Coast the following Mon/Tue.

TexasBreeze wrote:The band to the sw has me worried. The same thing happened last evening with a band that started there then came in and stalled out....

I think this band may wait until it passes Houston to get heavier. For now, I'm expecting at most an inch or two in SW Houston from it over the next hour or two.