Actually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:37 pm Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance
Search found 830 matches
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:43 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:03 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Cpv17 lol it even has a hurricane in the eastern gulf, its actually very interesting to see the Euro be the aggressive model now, and the GFS not so much, its like the scripts have flipped lol crossover occurs in about 5-6 days so really not even fantasy range, thats a pretty respectable time frame...
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:02 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
The potential of an EPAC crossover. Some of the models have been hinting at it. Some solutions do show a true crossover. But, it’s a little more complicated than that and different operational models are spinning things up for different reasons. That said, longer range data has suggested wetter ano...
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 1:18 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
We have INVEST 91-L.
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:30 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Whats this talk about the boc? The potential of an EPAC crossover. Some of the models have been hinting at it. Some solutions do show a true crossover. But, it’s a little more complicated than that and different operational models are spinning things up for different reasons. That said, longer rang...
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 11:52 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Ar this point im never believing another model showing rain until el nino effects really start to kick in, this summer has been a joke and the models nothing more than a massive tease every time, the fact that areas like San Diego are going to see more rain in one day than we have seen all summer i...
- Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:12 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 79510
Re: August 2023
Sure but any tropical systems that miss us south or east tend to just make it even hotter here. It's so parched at my house that my fence is falling down and I have to let my dogs out on leashes so they don't hurt their legs in the gigantic cracks in the yard. They are large enough to catch my own ...
- Sat Aug 19, 2023 11:19 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 79510
Re: August 2023
Not looking good for us. Models currently keep the stupid death ridge firmly in place and bury this system at the Mexico border. I wouldn't hold out hope for any rain at all. Still needed rainfall for *parts of Texas and still better for the bigger picture. Also, lets keep an wye on the bigger patt...
- Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:01 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
I think everyone is being realistic with the present uncertainty and no one is fully comiting to anything just yet. That said, odds favor the middle and lower Texas coast for widespread rain.
- Thu Aug 17, 2023 5:10 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Some of what is also happening is a more robust circulation is more likely to be impacted by the 500 MB flow (WSW, thanks to ridge). A stronger circulation may have a tendency to head to west, if not WSW.
- Thu Aug 17, 2023 4:38 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
We need to have a disclaimer statement following every post about the NAM - lol.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 17, 2023 4:36 pm Looks like the Nam is showing some development, and its north of the other models, time will tell
- Thu Aug 17, 2023 4:34 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Boy I love what I’m seeing on that last frame of the 12z Euro! Unfortunately, it looks like it’s gonna get sucked up by the NE trough and end up more in the central or eastern part of the Gulf. For what it's worth (nothing at this point) that doesn't happen on the EPS Control. It misses the trough ...
- Thu Aug 17, 2023 2:26 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Lol the euro then tries to bring a system from the pacific into the western gulf, wild run It's happened a few times before. We will need to keep an eye on the southern Gulf and western Caribbean in the 8-12 day period. Lots of unsettled weather tied to both the CAG/Monsoonal trough and remnants of...
- Thu Aug 17, 2023 11:51 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
A lot of the further north vs. further south variance seems to be stemming from which end of the N-S oriented wave axis takes over and possibly closes off.
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 11:31 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Onshore flow + higher PWATS + less ridging locally all are still better than the current, setup either way.
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 11:20 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
This system may end up being fairly compact, and with ridging to the north, even that track wouldn’t *guarantee solid rain area-wide. (Think Claudette ‘03).Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 11:10 pm Cpv17 looks like the ridge will keep it moving once its inland, probably a good 24 hours of heavy tropical rain before it continues west
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:42 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Funny that this particular run does try to slow it down and wrap it up just a bit as it approaches the coast.
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:38 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary. It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z. Where site are you using? Hard to find a view larg...
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:20 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Hopefully this becomes at least an organized depression, a weak wave like what the GFS is showing isnt going to cut it Unless it does go further south. Haha. Takes a while to get into a drought and it often takes a bit to get out. I think we all have to keep that in-mind as well. Pattern for rain g...
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:14 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79624