I respectfully disagree. If you look at the 12z NAM 3km as well as the HRRR for 16-17Z the center is located just SE of the Brazoria/Matagorda county border, which is where it looks to be right now. I'm certainly not discounting the possibility of the rain jackpot being further east, but I think it...

There is a pretty evident circulation center on radar just south of Brazoria county. Couldn't get my tweet with the radar loop to load in here so here is the link: https://twitter.com/stephenuzick/status/1173974568953942017 That's no joke. Looking at the NOAA Buoy data (at least for those that have...

WRF sniffing the heavy rain potential as well. Although heaviest confined mostly offshore, trend increasing from the bay and on to the NW.

Couldn't help but notice a fantastic view of thunderheads far to the southwest from my office. A quick check of the radar, and that appears to be cells near Corpus. Amazing what a little mixing out of the haze of moisture will do for sight lines.

Majority of wildfire activity has been in the vastness of the Big Country and up towards the Red River Valley. While it is beneficial, let's hope we have good sustained rainfall to keep the fire activity low or at least easily manageable.

https://public.tfswildfires.com/incidents

thanks, srain. hurricanes are way outside my wheelhouse, as opposed to the supercells i've grown accustomed to...as a very amateur wx enthusiast.

18Z Early track guidance...Official raises an eyebrow... I posed a question earlier about the credibility of the HWRF, but this preliminary spaghetti plot lines up with what the 12z HWRF is showing. Looks like a decently potent Cat 1 for LA. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/20190710...

What's the boards' thoughts on the reliability (or credibility) of the HWRF?

jasons wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:32 am I can’t get HGX radar to update on RadarScope. Hasn’t updated since 8:20 but it says it’s online. Strange.

I've been using the IAH and Hobby terminal radars as an alternative, although the coverage area is much smaller for obvious reasons.

It's amazing to me how much action they get up in the semi-arid Panhandle and SW Oklahoma, but that same inflow down here along the coast is too dry and capped for anything. Not wishing for severe weather, but a clap of thunder with some rainfall would be welcome. Dry lines and fronts can do wonder...

Lightning is as tense as anything I can remember recently. Lots of energy

Thoughts on whether this will hold into the metro area, or hit the wall of capped atmosphere and dissipate? It’s been pretty stout except for those locales north.

that fort bend cell really had the classic hook that you see up in OK/KS, N TX and the Panhandle. the velocity signature was really bright, which you hope wasn't a debris ball.

Have to say that the GOES 16 Visible looks fascinating with a large blanket across the western two-thirds with a very distinct border.

Hi all. New to posting, but have been viewing the forums since well before Harvey last year. This is a fantastic weather group with tons of good discussion and insight. Would have been really nice to have something similar in the other regions of Texas that I lived. With that long-winded intro, here...