Search found 3335 matches

by Andrew
Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:28 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July Weather Discussion
Replies: 364
Views: 217938

Re: July Weather Discussion

cisa wrote:That was pretty wild. Heads up westside!

Luckily the storms are weakening so it won't be as bad.
by Andrew
Fri Jul 23, 2010 11:28 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

Got to give props to Ed on this one nice call on the eastern track.
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:12 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

Based on IR and MIMIC if the LLC is under the convection then it looks like this storm could be taking a western turn. Tomm morning sat should be very telling.
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:13 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

On another forum, someone said Bonnie is flattening out and that was indicative of the storm hitting the ridge. Another person said the storm was starting to change direction and the NHC expected it to change more westward. Anyone here know if this is true? The NHC has been clear in their discussio...
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:12 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

Nothing has changed since earlier, except that we have Bonnie. Some folks "elsewhere" are fighting over the landfall and strength. Bottom line is, no matter what direction Bonnie is moving now, she can not, and will not punch through the ridge. Her westward track will enhance and continue...
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:57 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: TD3 forms per NHC 11 a.m. advisory 7/22/2010

Boy many posters on Storm2k are really buying into the "East east...going east scenario". The system is not in the Gulf and boy oh boy. It is always going to be a east vs. west war on that board. You can tell the people who think it is moving west and will hit the west gulf usually are re...
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:49 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: TD3 forms per NHC 11 a.m. advisory 7/22/2010

Definite adjustment in the long term track. ;) Always subject to change though but the new center placement had a effect even for the long range. Yea I just personally believe in the long term it won't effect the track. I think the NHC shifted it to the east more because more models shifted to the ...
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:44 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: TD3 forms per NHC 11 a.m. advisory 7/22/2010

Definite adjustment in the long term track. ;) Always subject to change though but the new center placement had a effect even for the long range. Yea I just personally believe in the long term it won't effect the track. I think the NHC shifted it to the east more because more models shifted to the ...
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:26 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: TD3 forms per NHC 11 a.m. advisory 7/22/2010

I agree, but I would still take a watch and see attitude. I think ( to quote Dan and Wxman57) we should just go over our hurricane preparedness lists and make sure everything is ready. Yes I read wxman's post and was a little shocked on the bluntness of it. What did they say? Thanks! He said "...
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:16 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: TD3 forms per NHC 11 a.m. advisory 7/22/2010

I'm ok. Just posting the amateur and unofficial disclaimer. But this smells like Pass Christian as a 50 mph +/- storm, give or take, and I had a Summer job in Laurel, MS once, and have been to the beach in Biloxi. AFM analyzed the ridge and plotted it on a map: http://i1000.photobucket.com/albums/a...
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 2:49 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: TD3 forms per NHC 11 a.m. advisory 7/22/2010

But, I am an amateur, and this is unofficial, and nobody can sue Belo, or the EasternWx forum, or KHOU-TV 11, or Lucy Nolen, who is a babe but I can't say it or Mrs. Mahmoud might club me to death with a package of frozen chicken in my sleep. Amateur, unofficial, any rebroadcast, transmission or us...
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 2:16 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: TD3 forms per NHC 11 a.m. advisory 7/22/2010

We're going to see some adjustments with the center reforming . The current recon mission will give us a better indication of position and heading for the short-term. Yea but long-term it won't make much of a difference because the ridge will dictate where it goes. The only way I see this relocatio...
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 1:51 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: TD3 forms per NHC 11 a.m. advisory 7/22/2010

weatherguy425 wrote:
Yes I read wxman's post and was a little shocked on the bluntness of it.
What post?
Not much time to post. Based on the strength of the ridge to its north, I think I'll go fill up a few 5-gal gas cans for my generators when I get home today.
by Andrew
Thu Jul 22, 2010 1:14 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: TD3 forms per NHC 11 a.m. advisory 7/22/2010

i think its time for people of southeast texas to start making preparations for a possible cat1 or 2 hurricane...just my opinion I agree, but I would still take a watch and see attitude. I think ( to quote Dan and Wxman57) we should just go over our hurricane preparedness lists and make sure everyt...
by Andrew
Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:59 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010

i still think texas needs to keep a close eye on this sys :shock: tem Well here is where we could benefit from the setup that is taking place. First scenario (and most likely one too me) is that the storm stays weak and feels the ridge to the North-East and as a result sends it farther west to arou...
by Andrew
Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:47 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010

Atlantic Outlook: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 212331 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAH...
by Andrew
Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:56 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010

Always good too check the MIMIC to see the general motion of the storm and if circulation is present:

Image
by Andrew
Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:46 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010

After review the model runs I saved from Alex and #2; all of the major global and guidance models have very similar traits for this year. They tug north at any trough only to bend back west when it doesn't pan out. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are the worst at doing this. This isn't even a depression ye...
by Andrew
Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:30 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010
Replies: 372
Views: 184529

Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010

After review the model runs I saved from Alex and #2; all of the major global and guidance models have very similar traits for this year. They tug north at any trough only to bend back west when it doesn't pan out. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF are the worst at doing this. This isn't even a depression ye...