MontgomeryCoWx wrote:
It means more precip for our area... More widespread AND Heavier

pretty much

0z NAM: 18z NAM:
Baby steps....

Question remains...will most of that moisture be during freezing temps? The 2m temp forecast from the NAM suggests "yes". It curiously warms them a bit while the precip falls in the early afternoon, but I doubt it. I'm more concerned about temps from the onset, and it does have us below f...

Remember folks, this is one model. As Sraintx and Wxman 57 preach, patience. We shall see. Stay tuned. :) True The 0z NAM has the upper low a good bit of distance further east in 24 hours than the 18z run... This really makes all the difference. If the GFS shows the further east solution and thus m...

0z NAM:
18z NAM:

fwiw, big changes to QPF on the 0z NAM at hour 18. Much wetter and the 850 line is much further south around Houston...

There's almost a .25 bullseye around Galveston

EWX reports light snow and sleet across the Edwards Plateau. A lot of precip around areas where it is not even forecasted (Sonora). Hi res models may be handling the amount of precip a bit better here. Not a surprise... Thinking positively! :) Looks like the only concern is getting these temps to d...

I suspect hgx will probably change these watches to an advisory. There is nothing showing a "warning" criteria event now...

This all started last night during the 0z NAM when it started to slow the upper low down. 'Twas a bad sign if you like snow

Can't believe how unphased things have become on the models compared to just 12 hours ago...

As things stand now, it still looks like an advisory criteria event. But, man oh man.

But I still look at yesterday's 18z gfs and try to hold back the tears. Try...

Give me back mah snow, man

AND ALSO, Now that I see Mr.T is back, I know for sure we are all about to get buried in feet of snow. It's great to see you. Thanks for the welcome welcomes guys :) the cold core upper low wont shear,,again,,no negativity We kind of need it to if we want it to phase right Also another thing that o...

west versus the Southwest. Which is why I think areas further to the east have a much larger ice threat than we do, where their flow will be more out of the SW with a higher reliance on overrunning rather than lift ahead of the shearing upper low. The GFS wants 6" of snow across coastal AL/MS,...

Honestly it shows especially when you see the difference between the nam and NAM-hi res. It is becoming evident that the hi res models are doing a better job at picking up on the smaller things. The disturbances transitioning west across the state are small in nature and are giving most models issu...

mcheer23 wrote:

I noticed they raised precip chances to 60-70 percent.....Have the fz rain/sleet changing to snow and sleet..Seem pretty confident..

Confident on frozen precip, not so much what type, where, and how much (understandably)....

Same goes for the NAM. Gfs was the driest at first and now it is one of the wettest. That's true. The NAM was phased and juiced up. Now everything is slightly out of phase And we're 48 hours out. Another example of models doing a poor job during extreme events. They just can't handle them well sinc...

It's interesting to me that the CMC was the first model to really show the potential of this event, at times showing extreme snows across the area, but now it is the driest... The 0z CMC has very little QPF compared to the other models, and seems to be having a hard time with the track of the upper ...

GFS has up to 3" across the area.

David Paul you gambler, you... Must not be too worried about a few hours of freezing rain/ sleet to start that may knock down potential snow totals

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Unlike 2011, location of 850 mb freezing line is *almost* perfect for who gets snow or not.

My back yard is on the wrong side...

I'm a stats guy, so it kind of bums me out that the midnight temperature on tuesday may screw us of a high temperature below freezing. The GFS has us in the upper 30s at midnight dropping into the 20s in the afternoon. A low wednesday morning in the teens/low 20s, so a record low is at least possible.

This looks like a high impact event front Eastern Texas to the Carolinas. Also the 00Z GFS has trended 'wetter' with QPF in the .50+ range and that extends back into the Austin/San Antonio area as well. Over 1 inch QPF is over the Southern half of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama into Georgia and So...

ronyan wrote:The 0z NAM looks aggressive with precip for the Houston area.

It was just ever so slightly slower with the upper low. Less widespread qpf and just a tad warmer. Closed off longer and drags its feet. We really don't want this to slow down any more...