EWX was within their warning time window...issued at 1030am this morning or a full 12 hours likely before the onset of any freezing precip and both a noon and evening news cycle. They could have maybe put out a watch yesterday...but there was uncertainty and even still some this evening with accumul...

Currently 44 at CLL. 18Z GFS did not have CLL reaching 43 until 09Z Monday morning. It was forecasting a 00Z temperature of 51 (off by 7 degrees).

12Z NAM was forecasting a 00Z temp of 51 also and CLL not reaching 44 until 12Z Mon. OUCH.

5.24 recorded down in Brazoria County on the Brazos River at SH 35...

Dewpoint at Wharton has increased from 21 to 30 (+9) between 500pm and 835pm. Surface temp. has fallen from 40-38 (-2) in the same time period. As the models suggested...Td rises and T does not fall...saturating through raising the dewpoint not cooling the air temp (warm air advection) not wet bulb ...

Surface warm air advection is in progress over SE TX...note wind direction is from the south. Td at Palacios is up to 32...Td's will rise tonight even with no precip. Expect the temps. to only cool maybe 2-3 degrees. South winds usually do not promote much if any temp fall especially with thickening...

Just got a report of snow flurries on St. Simons Island, Georgia! Ocean effect... first memory of that since 1989... Okay, so what do you guys think about this wet bulbing potential. With 40°F with an 11° dew point, if it starts raining we're talking about a roughly 8-10° temperature drop potential...

Ok I'm in new caney..so would I be worried about wet bulbing and getting freezing rain here? I doubt you will have any impacts either morning. Could drop to 32 for a short period of time...but think any precip will be very light. Note: I encountered about 3 ice pellets and maybe 25 rain drops on th...

Have done a fairly extensive review of cross sections/forecast soundings this evening. General lack of QPF in the FRI PM/SAT AM looks to prevent much freezing rain threat for HOU...maybe and that is a big maybe for CLL and UTS could see some ZR. Td's are very low and soundings show slow saturation o...

Unfortunately, there seems to be no sign of moisture. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. Very little moisture to none until Thursday along the Rio Grande and then spreading east across TX Friday. Air mass modification will be ongoing with onshore winds returning by Friday...likely some of the coldest...

A quick look at observations across Central and E Texas into Western Louisiana show near or just below freezing temperatures at Georgetown near Austin. Temperatures in Lufkin are near 34-36 and in Jasper into the Piney Woods E Texas and Western Louisiana near Dequincy temperatures are near the 34-3...

Seemed much colder with the less talked about front last weekend. This (arctic outbreak) is really just a cold front to me. Nothing to write home about, especially in the Houston area. I think there is a general mis-understanding of what is meant by arctic front. It is the source region of the air ...

A quick look at observations across Central and E Texas into Western Louisiana show near or just below freezing temperatures at Georgetown near Austin. Temperatures in Lufkin are near 34-36 and in Jasper into the Piney Woods E Texas and Western Louisiana near Dequincy temperatures are near the 34-3...

CAN anyone tell me if I'll see some frozen stuff in Lufkin over NYE? I only like it in margaritas :-( Thanks It looks unlikely given the cold surface air (freezing or below) will mainly be across central and west TX. This area will see the onset of moisture the latest and not likely until on NYD wh...

Dear Jeff: I am contemplating a visit to Moody Gardens on Galveston Island Friday. Does the fact that the low you mentioned in your last post is of a coastal nature put Galveston under a greater "elevated thunderstorm" threat than, say, Southwest Houston, where I live? Reason for post: &q...

12Z NAM dewpoints have trended colder along with 12Z GFS, but as mentioned above very little if any QPF in the model guidance. Neither model shows freezing low temperatures Thursday AM and any wet bulb effect (looking unlikely) with lack of QPF appears to go into saturated the low levels instead of ...

What are the chances of that arctic air bleeding east into Louisiana? Any thoughts? Highly unlikely. I've seen this pattern many times in my 35 years working as a meteorologist here in Houston. The models had the right idea last week (sub-freezing with precip) and now they've lost the event. The Eu...

Dont think we are looking at anything record breaking or historic with respect to the cold air. Not sure we are looking at a repeat of March 2014 ice storm either. Too many variables at play over a week a away to even attempt to forecast P-type. However the pattern and upper flow due suggest both co...

Think the tornado threat will be enhanced along NE moving maritime boundary clearly noted from Matagorda Bay ESE into the Gulf of Mexico. Winds NE of the boundary are backed to the E and ESE while winds SW of this boundary are out of the SE to SSE. This backed low level flow near this boundary will ...

I sure would like to see the sub-tropical jet start to show up. October is usually a wet month in TX, yet since last Monday and into next week it has been dry. While I believe the atmosphere is responding to the warm SST's in the Pacific...I am wary of just how "above" the winter rainfall ...

What about any heavy rain/high wind event like we had on Monday? Anything like that on tap from either source?[/quote]

NO