I've had to consider 850 temps, sfc wind direction and cloud over to get any sort of accurate ball park on these highs/lows in the 7-day ... MOS/progs seem never to grasp just how cold these shallow, snow-cooled arctic air masses are... Guidance is usually 7°-10° too warm. I have a feeling we're goi...

Of interest... a professional, non-TV storm chaser SUV vehicle from the plains (complete with antennas, anemometer, marked with graphics) -- was spotted driving down Pinellas Blvd near St. Pete, FL at 3:30am this morning -- and the person that spotted him didn't think he was there to visit grandma f...

SO GLAD to be back on the forum... embarrassingly I'd lost my password/username and then got too busy with my young child and work to check in and participate. :) On this last full day of autumn 2014: Just thinking out loud ...we (D.P. and I have been discussing winter...) Drawing on some gut instin...

A rare "soaker", indeed.

Glad the forum's back online! Thanks Steve, or letting me know it was down. We had some DNS issues with our Gannett servers, but it appears that everything is back online. I gave a shout-out on my Facebook page, so hopefully a few more folks check it out to see your discussions. Thanks!

Interesting to see the latest visible satellite loop: The southward-progressing outflow boundary over NE Texas has pretty much died out before reaching our area, though it still has some penetration power for NW Louisiana, closer to the base of the dying MCV. Our low-level SW flow is simply overwhel...

Related to Andrea-- A late-season cold front will be dragged farther south, faster due to the departing tropical system: the SPC says there's an 80% chance a severe storm watch will be needed for the Houston-area. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0979.html

This reminds me of Tropical Storm Debby, with the exception that it's going much faster. Similar radar returns and tornadic activity... dry air to its west giving it a sub-tropical storm look. Fascinating to see this develop. Check out this live camera from Siesta Key beach, Sarasota, FL. Sustained ...

Andrea lives... Marginal system, but a system nonetheless. Just glad it's not coming to Houston. This'll be a good dose of rain, needed for their water table going into an iffy summer... The "wet seasons" haven't been so "wet" in the past few years there.

Waiting on that VORTEX message, but the plane has so far traveled only west of the satellite-indicated center of convection...

I agree 100% that the effects will be very simliar tomorrow for FL... Because the NHC seasonal forecast is for an "above-average" season, I would not be surprised if they're generous in naming this one...

... it'll be interesting to see if this is classified as a pure tropical system, or sub-tropical... NHC up's chance to 60%... TEAL 72 enroute.

**UPDATE 2:10PM -- Latest satellite loop reveals a parent circulation under the main area of clouds/convection... The initial parent low well west appears less dominant and dissipating. We may have a tropical storm, after all, though the center is partially exposed, so that isn't ideal for the syste...

Dear All, Thank you for the warm welcome! The content of your forum and body of work is really impressive! I'll chime in as schedules allow, especially when bad weather threatens. Brooks Garner, AMS/NWA M-F Noon-4pm Meteorologist KHOU 11 News http://facebook.com/KHOUBrooksGarner http://twitter.com/B...