That's a good 6hrs of freezing rain or sleet! While 18z gfs is the "bad run", maybe it's a sign of shifting model opinions... It makes sense though: dry dew points pulled in as that coastal low forms, producing dynamic cooling. If highs were already going to be in the upper-30s, as dew poi...

We're sitting here looking at these models wondering just how dramatic of a change it'll be for p-type if the models aren't comprehending the intensity and endurance of the cold, before precip begins... One to watch Friday and Saturday for sure... Ice pellets at worst Friday... freezing rain/sleet S...

Pretty stout high coming down from Canada! Approach 1060mb and modifying more slowly -- plus setting up farther east -- to push colder arctic air toward Houston than last week's.

Thanks Brooks. I appreciate the time and effort you took to explain perceptions. I think srain clarified what my issues were with this latest outbreak. I need to remember this KHOU weather forum, unlike the television station itself, isn't just for the local KHOU viewing area. We've suggested in th...

Excellent post Brooks. Over the years of the history of this Weather Community we do a fairly good job of laying out the potential and also folks need to understand as the years have gone by, our reading and member audience has grown to a rather large geographical area that covers areas from New Me...

A note about weather psychology ... Not just answering this one person, but to address the public's perception of "weather forecasters" as a whole... sigmund_froid_249x298.jpg 'Hype', in my humble opinion, is the wrong word to describe the lead-up to this latest cold air outbreak, and in m...

Happy January 2nd! Looking for another misty, drizzly day across southeast TX. Still, significant icing potential (in progress) in central/west, panhandle region... A totally different world up there today... No wintry weather here in southeast TX, but with 40s and low 50s for highs, it'll feel more...

There was some talk here over the last weekend about the trajectory of the cut-off cold core low, and the possibility of the column cooling off enough for snow directly under it's path. It appears that the low has indeed cutoff and is generally headed toward Texas, but I've seen no further discussi...

Here's a pic from viewer Cheryl Letolle this morning from Lubbock. Looks like a good coating to an inch. snow_lubbock_cheryl_Letolle.jpg Morning FutureTrack run keep icy mix well west of Austin at its closest pass to Houston (happening at peak wet bulbing tonight around midnight.) Liquid rain for us...

It's interesting that the National Weather Service in San Antonio is going so much colder than even the GFS -- a computer models which is still significantly farther north on the ice zone. This is a reflection of the model's inability to fully understand just how dense and cold this low-level arctic...

ha! thanks!

5:45am 12/31/14 .... Isn't it amazing to see single digits in the panhandle, but no chance of the core of the arctic air making it into Houston? We'll probably not even see freezing over the next several days... Talk about dodging a bullet. It's these kind of days....... I am glad we're not dealing ...

advisories.jpg Winter storm warnings are up for west Texas, with various icy travel advisories for central sections, up thru the panhandle region... For Houston, we're still expecting a borderline event, leaning now toward "cold rain" for New Year's day morning. Overall, models seem to be...

GFS and EURO have been suggesting a dusting or coating to 3" for the panhandle and west TX, with their solutions very simliar...I can only post the GFS (due to contract issues with EMCWF), but it looks similar... It will be interesting to see if this verifies.

As of 4pm newscast at KHOU 11, we are going "wet" (not wintry) for Houston area... but we are mentioning that this is a situation to monitor for possible icing far north and west of Houston. (Austin/San Anton/Bryan) for a time New Year's morning... all models continue to advertise "w...

As of 4pm newscast at KHOU 11, we are going "wet" (not wintry) for Houston area... but we are mentioning that this is a situation to monitor for possible icing far north and west of Houston. (Austin/San Anton/Bryan) for a time New Year's morning... all models continue to advertise "w...

As of 4pm newscast at KHOU 11, we are going "wet" (not wintry) for Houston area... but we are mentioning that this is a situation to monitor for possible icing far north and west of Houston. (Austin/San Anton/Bryan) for a time New Year's morning... all models continue to advertise "we...

Thursday morning, temperatures won't be far from freezing in areas well north of Houston... (Conroe and Huntsville?) Today there were reports (per the NWS) of icing on bridges in Brazos Valley up around Bryan earlier this morning... After this arctic front passes thru tomorrow, we'll see New Year's ...

Here's as close as the 12z GFS brings the wintry mix to Houston: Washington County -- Brenham. New Year's morning. This will change as the models get a better grasp on how cold that shallow arctic air mass becomes... I'd expect (loosely) that the ZR line sets up along and north of I-10... I'll bring...

Waiting for 12z GFS to finish... so interesting 9-10 days out to see our first real wintry precip event potentially shaping up. While it's totally insane to talk "precip type" this far out, it seems to me that an all snow event in Houston is unlikely due to the relatively shallow nature of...