For what it's worth, USAF Hurricane Hunters TDY to Ellington. Suspect will see flights and data soon.

Edit: Looks like they're off on first recon...callsign TEAL95

Literally just stole the words right out of my mouth. Our weather here is wack. It used to not be like this. And my intuition is telling me that the water hose has turned off and we’re about to enter one long hot and dry pattern. Out of sheer curiosity, for the uninitiated (myself having lived here...

It was hot today! Just the beginning of it dries out and we don’t get some rain Always the way it is. Zero rains for weeks or too much all at once. Literally just stole the words right out of my mouth. Our weather here is wack. It used to not be like this. And my intuition is telling me that the wa...

The 0z Euro dropped potential mischief in the BoC last night but the 12z GFS and Canadian continue with the idea of something, though it continues to be pushed back in the long range. Not surprising with these type of gyre setups as the models have issues resolving the eventual genesis. Can always ...

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 7:35 pm If it rained every day in the Summer, I wouldn't complain. Can it stay in the 80s all Summer, and then stop raining when CFB season rolls around with the first major cold front? That's not too much to ask is it?

“I like your style, dude” - txbear...Sam Elliot in Big Lebowski

Looks like some heavy rains setting up and training over Brazoria, Ft Bend and Western Harris counties this morning. That's some deep fetching of Gulf moisture. Got dark enough before the skies opened up that the street lights and neighbors' outdoor lighting kicked on. Pretty efficient rains to the...

Well...that escalated quickly. Think there was at least consensus that we weren't out of the woods yet with this set up, but tropical mischief is another level. UKMET also on board. The rest of the 12z run has it running north through the hill country, central texas, and into the big country.

The firehose is certainly on full blast with everything seemingly anchored right along the coast and on out in to the gulf. I was looking at the 12z HRRR and it looked like it initiated decently well with the current radar, and trended to maybe some additional showers mainly I-10 and south. I think ...

Watch expanded eastward as I had thought. Just too much energy out there, and as y’all have already noted the sun being out much of the day really added fuel to the fire. That’s a heck of a line. One of the more impressive ones I’ve seen in some time. Watch that area to the east of Halletsville and ...

Tornado watch is verifying for sure. Could be a one-two punch with a serious flood and added severe threat.

Don’t have time to post details but the tornado watch just went up. Here to eat my crow in anticipating the watch type haha. They went with Tornado. 18z HRRR is running now, but Skew T looks a bit more favorable to back up SPC's decision to go tornado with a bit more in lower and mid-level shear. I...

Likely to get a bit noisy here in the early evening. WRF wanting to go with a squall line this evening and HRRR (17z) is similar albeit later in the early morning hours. I think the solution is somewhere in between, perhaps a bit towards the WRF in timing, based on the slow advancement of that outfl...

Meanwhile. Our west Texas pals have mesocyclones all over the place. I was watching that as well. With the wonders of the internet, I checked one of the news stations out there and plain as day, classic mothership wall cloud. Probably gave the Lubbock folks quite the scare since it was sitting over...

That is a juiced up atmosphere out there. 17z HRRR sounding has CAPE over 3500. Will need to watch that MCS coming in from Central TX for a marginal hail tornado threat that usually accompanies those clusters. Could be quite interesting with the back-building from the east and this cluster coming in...

Guess that’ll bout do it for today. Nada here either in the west burbs. Line looked to be holding together, but I think the outflow boundary got out ahead and basically shut it down. Always amazed how that seems to occur often. I’ll take the temp and humidity drop. Sprinklers on. In no way wanting f...

In other news this morning, brief, very small tornado touchdown up in Huntsville yesterday. I wasn't even aware that the far north of the area was getting rain yesterday amidst the stifling humidity. https://www.khou.com/article/weather/tornado-huntsville-nws/285-69e280d0-f9d9-4487-a9b8-a09c31f12a1a

Think the HRRR got the storms right in general, location was off though with the biggest cluster going north and east...sound familiar? Models are models, not crystal balls. Cap must be pretty stout south and west considering the dynamics in play. A little more in rain to add to the "reserve ta...

hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear. Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing. I would love to understand how to read those. I’m clueless l...

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

What is with the weather pattern where this really bad stuff is hitting the hill country every few days at the same time at night? Nothing seems to show up earlier in the day. Dry line Yeah that was my thought as well...seemed like classic dryline set up. Now, I'm not sure how typical that feature ...