We are baking over here in SE La. Set numerous warm weather record highs this month. Mother Nature just turned winter off like a faucet starting in February.

If we are going to get a cold snap in early March, it still isn't showing up on the operational GFS.

Yep, that SE ridge is keeping the cold air from getting to us over here.

Srain, any idea if, and when, these SSW effects will start showing up in the operational models?

This thread title went from Arctic Cold returning to a very progressive pattern. harp, haven't you seen this before. My gut instinct is the models have backed way off on any arctic intrusions, thus you have this now. We've had our winter fun this year, now bring on the warmth. I've certainly seen t...

This thread title went from Arctic Cold returning to a very progressive pattern. I typically Update the Topic Title as the Month Begins. It also states Roller Coaster WX meaning very changeable Pattern. Without getting too technical in complicated meteorological terminology, Northern Hemispheric Pa...

This thread title went from Arctic Cold returning to a very progressive pattern. I typically Update the Topic Title as the Month Begins. It also states Roller Coaster WX meaning very changeable Pattern. Without getting too technical in complicated meteorological terminology, Northern Hemispheric Pa...

This thread title went from Arctic Cold returning to a very progressive pattern.

I converted to all Texas native drought resistant landscaping after 2009. One less thing to worry about. Sago Palms look bad throughout my neighborhood. I see the ECMWF and its ensembles joined the GEFS solutions of a Polar Vortex split today placing the PV entirely over N America near Valentine's ...

If we have more cold coming, it isn't showing up on the GFS as of yet.

It faded out on the 18Z.

I may not know what I am looking at, but the operational GFS doesn't seem to be picking up on this yet. Any thoughts or comments?

Thank you again. I am in the New Orleans area, but always follow your forum because what you get in SE Texas, we usually get the next day. I know a few people here who follow your forum there in Houston.

I always appreciate your responses. When do you think this will start showing up in the operational models?

Srain, are we looking at temps as cold as the last outbreak in your opinion?

tireman4 wrote:More eye candy...again..for entertainment purposes at this time....

Yes, because the operational GFS is all over the place each run.

From a synoptic point of view, here we are sitting at the end of January when a typical PNA pattern is expected within the 3 long wave conceptual model and instead we have a rex block forming in the Pacific. In fact, GFS, GFE Ensemble, ECMWF, Canadian all have a 570dm high setting up over eastern S...

Afternoon Update continues to advertise a cross Polar flow and cold air building across our source Regions into the February 8th or so timeframe. The Precipitation Outlooks continue to suggest that roughly from just S of Central Texas along the Entire Texas and Louisiana Coasts may see above normal...

Yeah, good point above. The cold air is not showing up on the GFS right now and it goes out to Feb. 14th.

Thank you.