TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ...

18z

Good convection near the center:

Hmm look at this the GFS finally sees something:

Nice Satellite loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Still intensifying:

FWIW 18z NAM shows farther north track and the ridge does not look nearly as strong:




More and more models have been shifting north little by little. Lets see if the trend continues.

Yea also one other thing I noticed is the outflow to the north which shows up well on a GR radar, is heading south and the sea-breeze is coming in. Those could meet up somewhere around Harris county and points west and east. Should be a stormy afternoon.

Thanks svrwx0503 and I stuck it for you. I looked at the maps and they look great. That sea-breeze looks like it is coming in from the south and could spark some strong storms near the metro area.

12 ECM

Hello Andrew, and congrats on your new status. Please tell me you were laughing because it was a real joke! And tell me you drew those graphics. right? :shock: Hey Kayci, and thank you. The reason I was laughing is because of how many times the GFS has painted a similar scenario. This far out, you ...

Hello Andrew, and congrats on your new status. Please tell me you were laughing because it was a real joke! And tell me you drew those graphics. right? :shock: Hey Kayci, and thank you. The reason I was laughing is because of how many times the GFS has painted a similar scenario. This far out, you ...

Also forgot to post projected path:

Something interesting I noticed on the latest satellite image is small bursts of convection all around the edges of the storm. Something I have never seen before. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html The reason you see that is because where Igor is located, the sun is getting close to...

sambucol wrote:What is that off the Texas coast?

Yea that is why I was laughing because it is 350+ hours out, but it does show a hurricane off the coast.

WTNT31 KNHC 121806 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 230 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010 ...IGOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------...

The Canadian model suggests a weak disturbance crossing the NW Caribbean grazing the Yucatan and on into the Gulf into Lower/Middle TX Coast. That is a different path then showed before... Hmm things to come? BTW 12z NAM shows far south result but has been doing a terrible job with intensity so far...

If only the convection could continue: