You can defiantly (in my opinion) make out the “L” itself and the cyclonic flow. Nice convective activity to its southwest.

Rip76 wrote:I notice they've moved us out of the purple.... to about 1 inch..

Keep in mind thats on a 5-day "scale".

Snowman wrote:at this point there seems to be a lot of rain on the west side of the low so who knows maybe we will get some rain even if the system makes landfall east of us.

any thoughts?

Th QPF would suggest some rain.

biggerbyte wrote:Landfall will be somewhere from S. E. Texas, to Central LA. You can take that to the bank. Certainly no further east than NOLA, but I think this will push a bit further south than some may think at this point, so NOLA would seem less likely.

We'll see..

I love your enthusiasm BB.

I wonder if watches at the very least would be posted once the low itself moves off shore given the short time frame from a possible redevelopment to a move inland.

srainhoutx wrote:Looks we may see Danielle as weak TS. IF I were guessing, probably landfall somewhere near Vermillion Bay, maybe a bit W of there. Certainly looks like a flooding event for some folks IMO.

I was thinking Grand Chenier myself....

srainhoutx wrote:12Z HWRF...

What is your thinking Steve? A weak T.S. somewhere east of Lake Charles? Flash flooding for sure, somewhere?

Interestingly enough, that storm in 1983 formed as a depression on August 15th. Made landfall on the 18th. Hmmmm. Man that was a horrible 2 weeks without power. It was hot even as a 10 year old. It was my first hurricane. Funny how an event such as that as a child determined (at least for me it did...

Nice blow up of convection

srainhoutx wrote:Watching carefully for any MCV (mesoscale vortex) that may spin up. Certainly brings back memories of a mid August back in 83...

HAHA yes it does. Umm makes me think of my avatar.....

So what are we looking at folks. Best guess? A lot of rain over SE TX and SW LA? A t.d.? Perhaps a t.s? Any thoughts?

5-Day QPF

I’ve said it once, I’ve said it twice and I’ll say it again. It’s a damned if you do and a damned if you don’t situation. If predictions were not made and there was a horrible season or even just one bad storm then someone, somewhere in some cosmos would take a hit; likewise, when there are predicti...

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:

See the 12Z Canadian- very similar solution...

What the heck is that?? Ummmm.

Interesting 7 day

[/quote]

I think it will change in the next run.[/quote]

You don't think east again? Looking the potential set up I would say they are on target, for now.

So having yet again one of those sleepless nights (many in the last few days) I was going through different news studios websites (meteorology department) and came across KBMT Channel 12 (Beaumont). Here’s a snippet from an online article about 97L……” It appears, at this point, that this will be a T...

Thanks T

0z Euro takes a very weak surface reflection to the Texas coast by day 5, like the last run 0z UKMET very similar The CMC, Euro, and UKMET all show a Texas hit, while the GFS and its counterpart GFDL and HWRF are way east outliers sound famaliar? One thing is for sure though, all of these models do...

i still think the models are way to far to the north and we still need to keep an eye on this system. i think the models will start shifting west from here on out....just my opinion. I share the same thoughts. As to how far west is the mystery. BB haven't heard from you since this morning. Your tho...