Stupid question but could these merge? No, they won’t merge. If they get close enough to each other it will cause the Fujiwhara effect which causes vorticies in close proximity to spin around each other. But given the relatively confined space of the gulf and the strength of the storms if they get ...

12z Euro gets awfully close to doing the Fujiwhara dance.

All aboard the wave train. Choo Choo!

I feel like I need to shower after posing about a 240 hr forecast though haha.

I know its a 240 hr forecast. But the past few Euro runs and the 12z Euro ensemble from a bit a go is a bit eye brow raising.

Given the modeling right now, I’m not sure watches would go further north than Freeport.

Over 3.5 inches at Willow Water Hole guage in SW Houston in past hour.

I see the Euro goes with the classics west Texas strengthening tropical cyclone

Past couple of HRRR runs show some training bands over the area tomorrow morning. It’s not showing crazy accumulation, but you never know when storms start to train in this type of airmass. Let’s see if it keeps up that trend or if it drops it.

Last couple HRRR runs seem to be pick up the boundary that is now bisecting Harris county and anchoring heavy rain on it through the night.

Luchs discussions are the best discussions.

More often than not we end up on the blast furnace side it feels like.

12z Euro is also slightly slower to landfall which is likely the cause of the slight westward jog.

Not sure if anyone looks at the 18z Euro ensemble but it is the first one I’ve seen that has a definitive split in track based on strength. The stronger solutions mostly all bend to the NW while the weaker ones continue on to the north. Perhaps a better stacked system feels the High more.

Maybe I’m wrong but it looks like the 12z euro just plows the storm through the bottom of the ridge which I don’t think is very likely.

I am genuinely curious how the lack of aircraft soundings will impact modeling for storms like this as they get closer to land. I know the hurricane hunters sample the environment around the storm but the downstream conditions are vitally important for the forecast.

Something to keep an eye on for tomorrow is how the 00z HRRR wraps up that the low tomorrow afternoon just to our north.

Looking at some of the meso models + radar + satellite I am seeing what amounts to an absolute mess of boundaries. We have a boundary moving west from LA, one moving south from an MCS in Oklahoma, the sea breeze, any local boundaries from storms this afternoon, and the squall line coming tonight. Gi...

From the overnight AFD: Per previous forecasts, the main issue going forward looks to be the possibility of heavy rainfall this weekend as a closed upper low moves across the state. However, there`s a new plot twist as current model runs are now tracking this system fairly quickly E as a strong col...

Looks like outflow boundaries from last night's midwest storms are sinking through Louisiana this morning. Looked like some gravity waves out ahead of that as well, heading in this general direction. Wondering what impact, if any, that is going to have this afternoon.