Search found 40 matches

by Met Tech
Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:36 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat
Replies: 102
Views: 51610

Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

Models are still having a hard time initializing the low in the right place, even the hourly-updating high-res models like RUC, Rapid Refresh, and HRRR are putting it too far west and too slow. Many seem to keep the axis of heavy rain west of Houston because of it.
by Met Tech
Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:08 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat
Replies: 102
Views: 51610

Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

Did a zoomed-in KWRF run for you guys again, but it's doing poorly with the east-of-track movement just like the others and I don't think it'll do a good job with totals. I'll try again in a bit. Just for fun, here's what it does from 18Z today through 18Z tomorrow (unfortunately, it's not counting ...
by Met Tech
Tue Sep 07, 2010 11:36 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat
Replies: 102
Views: 51610

Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

Nice increase in convection around the center in the past hour or so.

Image
by Met Tech
Tue Sep 07, 2010 10:32 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat
Replies: 102
Views: 51610

Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

I was telling a few folks this last night ... these tropical systems almost NEVER behave as progged once they make landfall. There always seems to be a few surprises with the track. And here we are with HERMINE, who is definitely moving more northeast than predicted. [/i] Yesterday it looked like a...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:45 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

I love this radar too. It is probably the best radar system out there. I just started using place-files and wow! They sure are useful and I am going to start looking for some more soon. [/quote] ----------------------------------- I even have my 73 year old grandma operating GRLEVEL3 on her compute...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:42 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

I'll give it that but seems to be more in character of the NAM. I think someone on Eastern was mentioning that there were plans to tweak it so it handled tropical systems better. I know the locals were readily dismissing the NAM and really isn't that unexpected with its tropical track record. HPC di...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:09 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

Not surprising. Your computer has been cursed with all that NAM talk you were typing earlier. It obviously has migrated into your hard drive. :mrgreen: Haha. I should have known better than to stick up for that thing. Although, still seems it had the right idea of a tighter and stronger system comp...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:49 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

Sorry I didn't get back to you guys with rainfall projections. I've had off and on computer problems today, and also when I made that double-nested run, the model didn't produce any rainfall anywhere, not even in Hermine which caused it to remain as a loose low wobbling around with no precip process...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:38 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

I'm wondering about a core rain event myself, especially if it drifts along with the NHC track because it brings it in between Del Rio and San Antonio where my family lives (Sabinal) They have some botched flood-control road construction going on there and if this thing does an overnight dump it's g...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:10 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

srainhoutx wrote:RECON may have had a mechanical issue. Data suggests they have turned around and are heading back to base.
D'oh!! I've been anxiously awaiting them getting into this thing while it's looking so good. Sure hope we don't miss an ob from the best part.
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:33 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

Speaking of which. I need to get with ya about possibly building me one or helping me out in building one. I know you touched on how to do it in the chase thread but wasn't sure if you had already got a patent on it. :P One of those off season things to do. Ok, cool, I'll be happy to help you get s...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:06 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

Do they drive around Alaskan highways at extreme high rates of speed testing some weird looking contraption on the top of their roof?

:D I sure hope that highway event isn't the only thing that contraption sees this year!!
by Met Tech
Sun Sep 05, 2010 1:24 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: 90L Gulf of Mexico

KWRF pressure bottoms out at 988 mb and around 55 kt near landfall. 07/00Z.. Much further south than yesterday's run but looks a little north of most the other models.
gulf4.png
gulf4.png (182.41 KiB) Viewed 4782 times
by Met Tech
Sun Sep 05, 2010 12:13 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: wxdata Dan Meador 1951-2010
Replies: 160
Views: 208025

Re: wxdata Dan Meador 1951-2010

Sorry about the loss of Dan. I never knew him, but he sounded like a great guy which is apparent by the feelings I see here. Wish I'd signed up here earlier and had the chance to interact with him.
by Met Tech
Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:37 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: 90L Gulf of Mexico

srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z NAM (outlier and non tropical model) suggests a little less development (no Hurricane this run)and brings the low into S TX near Corpus Christi.



Interesting...when I get home in a bit I'm going to fire up the KWRF again and see what happens.
by Met Tech
Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:33 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: 90L Gulf of Mexico

Although I've not paid really close attention to the model's handling of tropics before, the Rapid Refresh has had some 30-35 kt (possibly some 40 kt pixels in there) winds down in that area near the low for the past several hourly cycles. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/from_jet/rr/full/2010090513/...
by Met Tech
Sun Sep 05, 2010 9:01 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: Gulf Of Mexico Development?

Welcome aboard. The workstation wrf and the handle sound strangely familiar. I have nothing to add, but I hope it beings rain, haven't really been short on rain the last few weeks, but as long as it isn't flooding, I figure more is better than less. Hey Ed! Hope you guys do get some rain. I talked ...
by Met Tech
Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:23 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: 90L Gulf of Mexico

Yeah the Coastal WFO's are discounting the NAM (non tropical model) for a GFS/ECMWF solution of a weaker system. We shall see. Regardless, that rain chances look to be going up beginning tomorrow. Certainly worth watching until it gets onshore. [/i] I just wonder if that's the only reason they're t...
by Met Tech
Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:57 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: Gulf Of Mexico Development?

Looks like all the coastal WFOs are discounting a stronger system like the NAM depicts (which is similar to KWRF). Haven't seen any reasoning behind it though.
by Met Tech
Sat Sep 04, 2010 6:03 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 166334

Re: Gulf Of Mexico Development?

Hi everyone...I just signed up this morning and figured I'd share some forecast graphics from my KWRF model concerning the potential Gulf system. It seems to be wanting to go for hurricane strength before landfall in Northern Mexico around 12Z on the 7th. Pressure bottoms out at 983mb (purples are 6...