Bronwsville radar may be picking up on the still center but a little too far out to tell for sure.

Latest recon still shows a very broad storm with no real obvious center.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:34 pm 18z Euro stalls the system out similar to the 12z Euro. Not sure about rainfall totals.

It's further east this time which is getting closer to the solution of the other models. If this run happens verbatim it would be worst-case scenario for Houston with over 20 inches of rain across the city

Nicholas still looks pretty elongated/weak right now with southwesterly shear still impacting the storm. Recon is heading into the storm now so we will see what they find.

6z HWRF finally initialized correctly instead of over in the EPAC. Brings a cat 1 just n of Rockport on Tuesday morning after brushing just offshore of Corpus. 6z HMON brings a moderate ts over Freeport/Surfside early Tuesday afternoon. To be fair we could have a refresh with a new initialization p...

Recon has already departed and getting out there a little earlier than I realized. I don't think it's a definitive depression/storm yet but might be enough there that they go ahead with PTC advisories at 10. I believe there is enough model support and now that convection/vorticity has entered the B...

The latest Euro is slower overall this run with a near stall near Colombus or just southwest of there. Obviously, in this scenario, the heavy rain threat would be amplified and is something we need to continue to monitor but remains an outlier at this point. Andrew, some of the ensembles the past f...

The latest Euro is slower overall this run with a near stall near Colombus or just southwest of there. Obviously, in this scenario, the heavy rain threat would be amplified and is something we need to continue to monitor but remains an outlier at this point.

don wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:32 am The EURO seems pretty much locked in on it's general landfall area of the storm at this point.

Landfall is similar but it stalls/slows the system along the coast this time instead of continuing to push inland.

00Z GFS ensembles show it's the furthest east by a considerable margin. Most other members line up well with the other models of a South Texas/Central Texas landfall

00Z UKMET still keeps it weak/into Southern Texas with a gradual turn to the northeast.

Well 00Z GFS is interesting so far. SHows 981mb storm east of Brownsville at 48H out. It was having some 5-7 mb swings in some of the increments. Smoothes out but some wild swings. Looks like it's going to tease Freeport/Surfside and Galveston before moving towards the border. Really weakens it as ...

Well 00Z GFS is interesting so far. SHows 981mb storm east of Brownsville at 48H out.

For comparison, this was one example of totals models were forecasting for Harvey

18Z ECMWF shows a similar track to the 12Z. The biggest difference is the system stays more organized inland with 4-8 inches across most of the region. It indicates the best chances for flooding during Tuesday evening/night with pwats exceeding 3 inches (~250% of normal). Also interesting to note it...

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:39 pm I believe they did predict insane amounts with Harvey.. maybe not 50-60 inch totals but still a lot.

Models were showing 30-40 inches before landfall. A lot of people (myself included) just didn't believe them

18Z GFS Ensembles In that model, it looks like it will be over water longer as it travels to the upper Texas coast. What is your opinion of it intensifying? Conditions are okay across the Gulf of Mexico. Some shear will remain present and dry air will be slow to get mixed out but a weak/moderate TS...

18Z GFS Ensembles

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:44 pm thoughts on golden triangle?

Pretty much the same situation as the rest of SE Texas, but being further east chances are higher for heavy rain through the middle of the week. Outside of that, we likely won't know where the heaviest rain will set up until Monday or Tuesday.

weatherguy425 oh im not saying the GFS scenario cant be right , but most model guidance takes this further inland right now, thats what im kinda leaning more towards, but again just depends on where the low forms GFS is an outlier currently, but it was also an outlier early on for Ida and some of t...