Search found 1488 matches

by Scott747
Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:34 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78133

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

thats a pretty large development zone Well of course it is. That's exactly what the modeling has been showing so far with different focal points up and down the axis as it enters the GoM. Until today Euro was on the northern end and the gfs and canadian on the southern end. Steering as of now seems...
by Scott747
Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:54 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78133

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

18z gfs is at least a little similar to the 6z run. Still behaves more like an axis/disturbance as it tries to develop as it approaches the lower and middle texas coast where it would at least give them some relief. More likely some overrunning clouds and a few sprinkle for coastal counties s of 10....
by Scott747
Tue Aug 15, 2023 6:01 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78133

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Probably the 'strongest' run yet by the 6z GFS. Looks to briefly try and close off into a weak and disorganized depression as it nears the mid to lower Texas coast early next week. 0z Euro was further n with a disorganized mess and decent rain totals for the upper and mid Texas coast. Probably a day...
by Scott747
Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:16 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78133

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Still a week out but hard to argue against the continuing model agreement for the disturbance that will be moving from the eastern GoM.

12z Euro is weaker with the reflection early on off of Florida but becomes stronger as it approaches the Texas coast.
by Scott747
Sat Aug 12, 2023 10:02 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78133

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Stratton20 wrote: Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:18 pm Yikes im seeing a few 33 celcius readings starting to show up in the gulf😬 thats about 91-92 degrees
What does that mean?
by Scott747
Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2023
Replies: 562
Views: 90700

Re: April 2023

Cromagnum wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:41 pm This thunder is something else.
Echoes from the Gulf...;)
by Scott747
Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:42 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2022
Replies: 1688
Views: 221685

Re: December 2022

I’m going to be taking some ITM BOIL options with a 12/16 expiration first thing tomorrow morning. I expect to make a quick buck on these. Puts or calls? I noticed one of your posts recently musing that a snap back was weather related but it was likely an organic quick rally with natty recently dow...
by Scott747
Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:42 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

So here's the bad news as everyone wakes up this morning.... 6z GFS continues its rather substantial w trend with a large cat 3/4 about 200 mi e and s of Matagorda and Cameron moving n and making landfall just e of Cameron. Here's the good news - It's still in the 10 day range and almost guaranteed ...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:59 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

0z GFS continues to trend w ever so slightly. Comes off the YP again n of Merida and gets just w of Grand Isle before crawling in the central gulf through hr 213. Windfield is off the charts. Coastal flooding would be an issue for the upper texas coast even with it that far away. Slow movement nnw a...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:23 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

18z GFS is way w midway through the run.... Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165. Ends up getting about as far w as Grand Isle before drifting n towards the missip mouth. Landfall is similar to 12z as it scoots ne and near Pensacola. Still not seeing anything that would concern our area. Missin...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:45 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

18z GFS is way w midway through the run....

Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165.
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:46 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there w...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:38 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there wo...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:05 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf. 18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker bu...
by Scott747
Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:55 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf. 18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker but...
by Scott747
Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:27 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: October 2022
Replies: 361
Views: 80632

Re: October 2022

Hard to imagine imagine a system from the deep tropics making it this far considering the time of year but there certainly growing model support for a significant system in the nw Caribbean late in September with long term track up in the air.
by Scott747
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

It's not called the 'crazy uncle' for nothing. Huge shift to the right with the Canadian and more realistic with the other guidance.
by Scott747
Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:44 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100319

Re: September 2022

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:54 pm Yikes the 00z CMC is nasty
Why?
by Scott747
Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:00 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2022
Replies: 1099
Views: 182756

Re: August 2022

Yeah this run is going to be a doozy.
by Scott747
Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:56 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2022
Replies: 1099
Views: 182756

Re: August 2022

The 0z GFS is gonna end up looking pretty ugly at the end of it's run. Setup is pretty gnarly. Still in fantasy land and it's hard to imagine it verifying with how it handles the evolution of the current disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean and what looks to influence another either gyre or Colombia...