Search found 1488 matches
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:34 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78133
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
thats a pretty large development zone Well of course it is. That's exactly what the modeling has been showing so far with different focal points up and down the axis as it enters the GoM. Until today Euro was on the northern end and the gfs and canadian on the southern end. Steering as of now seems...
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:54 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78133
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
18z gfs is at least a little similar to the 6z run. Still behaves more like an axis/disturbance as it tries to develop as it approaches the lower and middle texas coast where it would at least give them some relief. More likely some overrunning clouds and a few sprinkle for coastal counties s of 10....
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 6:01 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78133
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Probably the 'strongest' run yet by the 6z GFS. Looks to briefly try and close off into a weak and disorganized depression as it nears the mid to lower Texas coast early next week. 0z Euro was further n with a disorganized mess and decent rain totals for the upper and mid Texas coast. Probably a day...
- Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:16 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78133
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Still a week out but hard to argue against the continuing model agreement for the disturbance that will be moving from the eastern GoM.
12z Euro is weaker with the reflection early on off of Florida but becomes stronger as it approaches the Texas coast.
12z Euro is weaker with the reflection early on off of Florida but becomes stronger as it approaches the Texas coast.
- Sat Aug 12, 2023 10:02 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78133
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
What does that mean?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:18 pm Yikes im seeing a few 33 celcius readings starting to show up in the gulf thats about 91-92 degrees
- Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:50 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: April 2023
- Replies: 562
- Views: 90700
- Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:42 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: December 2022
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 221685
Re: December 2022
I’m going to be taking some ITM BOIL options with a 12/16 expiration first thing tomorrow morning. I expect to make a quick buck on these. Puts or calls? I noticed one of your posts recently musing that a snap back was weather related but it was likely an organic quick rally with natty recently dow...
- Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:42 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
So here's the bad news as everyone wakes up this morning.... 6z GFS continues its rather substantial w trend with a large cat 3/4 about 200 mi e and s of Matagorda and Cameron moving n and making landfall just e of Cameron. Here's the good news - It's still in the 10 day range and almost guaranteed ...
- Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:59 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
0z GFS continues to trend w ever so slightly. Comes off the YP again n of Merida and gets just w of Grand Isle before crawling in the central gulf through hr 213. Windfield is off the charts. Coastal flooding would be an issue for the upper texas coast even with it that far away. Slow movement nnw a...
- Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:23 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
18z GFS is way w midway through the run.... Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165. Ends up getting about as far w as Grand Isle before drifting n towards the missip mouth. Landfall is similar to 12z as it scoots ne and near Pensacola. Still not seeing anything that would concern our area. Missin...
- Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:45 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
18z GFS is way w midway through the run....
Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165.
Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165.
- Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:46 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there w...
- Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:38 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there wo...
- Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:05 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf. 18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker bu...
- Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:55 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf. 18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker but...
- Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:27 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: October 2022
- Replies: 361
- Views: 80632
Re: October 2022
Hard to imagine imagine a system from the deep tropics making it this far considering the time of year but there certainly growing model support for a significant system in the nw Caribbean late in September with long term track up in the air.
- Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:50 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
It's not called the 'crazy uncle' for nothing. Huge shift to the right with the Canadian and more realistic with the other guidance.
- Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:44 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 100319
Re: September 2022
Why?
- Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:00 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2022
- Replies: 1099
- Views: 182756
Re: August 2022
Yeah this run is going to be a doozy.
- Thu Aug 25, 2022 11:56 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2022
- Replies: 1099
- Views: 182756
Re: August 2022
The 0z GFS is gonna end up looking pretty ugly at the end of it's run. Setup is pretty gnarly. Still in fantasy land and it's hard to imagine it verifying with how it handles the evolution of the current disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean and what looks to influence another either gyre or Colombia...