My thoughts, as they have been much of the off season, is that Neutral conditions will be in store for the heart of the season. Not much difference in Neutral and LA NINA as far as number of storms. As WXMN suggested a weaker bermuda high would tend to curve most storms out to sea before 55W. Though...

A tropical cyclone (tropical storm and hurricane) hits the Upper Texas Coast every (1.9) year. Hurricanes come every 3.6 years, while major hurricanes come every 10.8 years. This going back to 1870 to 2010. Probability For Landfall on Upper Texas Coast 1 Tropical Cyclone=Every 1.9 years 1 Hurricane...

The 12z GFS really shows nothing out until 288hr which it isnt much. I think we will see near normal temps from here on out. Of course I said that until the last front pushed through.

NO rain here in Pearland...just some crazy wind. Hit a gust in the upper 30's.

GFS out 252hr which is pretty much la la land shows a more zonal pattern. Nothing to speak of in the way of cold air coming down between now and a week from now.

What is RECON sampling that is so important so far from land? Always wondered that. Currently I am in the low 50's here with some serious gusts. More through dry though which is fine by me. My yard is starting to mold. Will be joining the night crew for the 12z GFS run. Really concerned about the ne...

Been in San Fran last couple of days on business. ON the way all I saw was snow. Any shot next week will not modify as much which has me somewhat concerned. Mostly for whats left of the tropical plants.... BTW- This is the most active El Nino I think I have ever witnessed. How many GOM lows have we ...

Katdaddy wrote:Still awaiting the line of storms down here in League City. That cell over SE Harris County is very intense with some bowing.

it will be there shortly...already here in Pearland

pretty amazed there was enough instability to produce some of these storms let alone a squall line. I didnt think the return flow was enough given it was only for a day.

Its all about the depth of the cold air. You just said it perfectly. I'm still not sure what you're talking about. Can you please explain what you mean by depth of the cold air? You said earlier that we need temps below freezing at all layers above the surface to see frozen precip...which is wrong....

IMO, we will have cold weather but not cold enough aloft to support snow or sleet. No model is showing such a scenario down here....there is no debate...

Not looking good for southeast Texas next week, as far as frozen precip goes, according to my trusty GFS forecast precipitation. Looks good for Dallas and maybe points 80 to a 100 miles north of us. Sorry Charley. yep, just normal to slightly below normal temps....slowly we warm up. IMO, winter has...

Not looking good for southeast Texas next week, as far as frozen precip goes, according to my trusty GFS forecast precipitation. Looks good for Dallas and maybe points 80 to a 100 miles north of us. Sorry Charley. yep, just normal to slightly below normal temps....slowly we warm up. IMO, winter has...

that is one tight pressure gradient sheesh.....

I will be glad when we get out of this pattern. I cant recall the last time I saw the sun. Heres hoping the 06z trends warmer as well....

Nice work Steve....looking forward to Tropical Weather Season and some non-threatening long trackers. I suspect we will have some long nights ahead of us come July-Sept....