18z GFS is way w midway through the run.... Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165. Ends up getting about as far w as Grand Isle before drifting n towards the missip mouth. Landfall is similar to 12z as it scoots ne and near Pensacola. Still not seeing anything that would concern our area. Missin...

18z GFS is way w midway through the run....

Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165.

6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there w...

6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there wo...

Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf. 18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker bu...

Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf. 18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker but...

Hard to imagine imagine a system from the deep tropics making it this far considering the time of year but there certainly growing model support for a significant system in the nw Caribbean late in September with long term track up in the air.

It's not called the 'crazy uncle' for nothing. Huge shift to the right with the Canadian and more realistic with the other guidance.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:54 pm Yikes the 00z CMC is nasty

Why?

Yeah this run is going to be a doozy.

The 0z GFS is gonna end up looking pretty ugly at the end of it's run. Setup is pretty gnarly. Still in fantasy land and it's hard to imagine it verifying with how it handles the evolution of the current disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean and what looks to influence another either gyre or Colombia...

Both 18z GFS and ICON (out to 120 hrs) have a similar solution so it's not that outlandish. Plus the GFS isn't budging. Not that in any upcoming run it won't completely drop what it's showing now.

Interest in the disturbance that's now currently entering the Eastern Caribbean continues to build. Getting some decent signals from both the Euro and GFS ensembles and operational GFS (though it seems a little slow.) of it gaining organization as it nears Jamaica with a w or wnw heading as enters t...

0z ICON and GFS are in the general ballpark of agreement through the end of the ICON run. GFS does a few weird things but doesn't look unreasonable as it doesn't get fully picked up and resumes a w/wnw once in the gulf. Still some wide fluctuations from run to run but once you remove the noise the g...

Well... Mr. iCylone and myself have been half *** chatting about a potential Caribbean system the last day or so that could be in a position to enter the gulf. Now we're both getting even more intrigued. Go figure it's again the ICON leading the way.... Are you referring to the system the GFS has e...

Well... Mr. iCylone and myself have been half *** chatting about a potential Caribbean system the last day or so that could be in a position to enter the gulf. Now we're both getting even more intrigued. Go figure it's again the ICON leading the way.... Are you referring to the system the GFS has e...

Well... Mr. iCylone and myself have been half *** chatting about a potential Caribbean system the last day or so that could be in a position to enter the gulf. Now we're both getting even more intrigued.

Go figure it's again the ICON leading the way....

18z GFS attempts to build a little stronger vorticity with the incoming disturbance and brings it up across Corpus and Matagorda with little convection however. 12z Euro remained weak and further s across ne mexico and the RGV. Only scraps to hold onto for our neck of the woods is the motion as a li...

It's extremely tepid but there's now enough 'model support' to cast an eye off the mid texas coast in the next 48+ hours. At best there might be enough of a weak circulation (not a TD) that tries to form before going inland from Matagorda and s. Could be enough to sling some moisture up our way but ...

Recon just finished their mission and needless to say they didn't find much. Believe or not the axis/low is still generally ese/e of Corpus and drifting N/NW Remain cautiously optimistic that into the evening and overnight hours that rain will shift into areas of SE Texas as it nears the coast and l...