Welp. The GFS is bouncing around like a ping pong ball. Looks like the 12z Euro one minute and switches back to the previous GFS runs.

18z GFS looks like it's initialized exactly where the 4pm advisory was.

New recon mission is on the way and should be there in a few hours.

New 'center' had a small impact on the 18z ICON. Further up the coast and a little faster.

Also despite all the bashing of the GFS and praise of the Euro....

The NHC for now is siding with the GFS and HWRF. Hence the reason for the hurricane watch.

And fwiw the NHC does call it a center reformation.

Hurricane watch Port A to Sargent. TS warning extended to Freeport.

I tried to explain it. The 'center' this morning was an estimated center. Recon wasn't far along enough in the mission to have established a center. That's why you see a big difference between the original advisory and the intermediate one.

So the center didn't move? There never was a real center fix by recon before that first advisory. I believe that the NHC was ready to initiate the PTC at 10 with an 'estimated' center and while recon was in the early stages of the mission found winds supportive of an upgrade to a ts before making a...

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:40 pm Travis Herzog on Facebook Scott

I'm assuming that he must of made that statement before taking in account the 1 pm new update/fix which made it confusing.

Sunday 2PM Tropical Update: Be prepared for some changes to the forecast track coming out at 4PM. The center appears to be consolidating about 95 miles to the north-northeast of the last known center fix. If this center takes over, it will cause the track to shift more eastward, the landfall timing...

12z Euro looks a little off early on. Ends up going in s of Brownsville and up through the King Ranch.

12z HWRF up through Matagorda Bay early Tuesday afternoon at 975. Begins to bend a little ne around Bay City and Needville. Looks much like the current NHC track.

TXWeatherMan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:17 am

Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:14 am 12x GFS is coming in further e towards Matagorda and then a little ne towards Sargent as a strong ts, low end cane.

Continues inland thru Brazoria and Galveston counties.

Looks like a shift west from the 06z right?

My fault. Meant left, west.

12x GFS is coming in further e towards Matagorda and then a little ne towards Sargent as a strong ts, low end cane.

Continues inland thru Brazoria and Galveston counties.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:37 am Well damn..should I atleast board up my windows here in Freeport?

Not unless the track shifts right.

Decent obs so far with recon. If they can close it off it will likely go straight to a ts. Pressure so far is around 1010...

6z HWRF finally initialized correctly instead of over in the EPAC. Brings a cat 1 just n of Rockport on Tuesday morning after brushing just offshore of Corpus. 6z HMON brings a moderate ts over Freeport/Surfside early Tuesday afternoon. To be fair we could have a refresh with a new initialization p...

6z HWRF finally initialized correctly instead of over in the EPAC. Brings a cat 1 just n of Rockport on Tuesday morning after brushing just offshore of Corpus. 6z HMON brings a moderate ts over Freeport/Surfside early Tuesday afternoon. To be fair we could have a refresh with a new initialization po...

Recon has already departed and getting out there a little earlier than I realized. I don't think it's a definitive depression/storm yet but might be enough there that they go ahead with PTC advisories at 10.