The 0z Euro is much weaker, but it’s also quite a bit further north as well with the strongest vorticity now around San Antonio Bay.

HWRF has landfall near Palacios as a 996mb storm and has plenty of rain with it.

The HWRF is much further north with 95L fwiw.

The 0z CMC is bullish with Isaac and it undergoes RI in the Gulf and goes into the mid TX coast. Pure fantasy land though so wouldn’t put much stock into it at this time.

jasons wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

davidiowx wrote:Is it me or is 95L not looking so good right now...

It’s lost a lot of deep convection over the past few hours. I know that much.

DMIN. Very common in weak systems.

Yeah. DMAX in the morning will fire it back up. I expect it to get its act together a bit tomorrow.

davidiowx wrote:Is it me or is 95L not looking so good right now...

It’s lost a lot of deep convection over the past few hours. I know that much.

NHC still has a 70% chance for development with the 8pm update. Pressures are definitely falling over the Yucatan so it’s trying to get it’s act together. Still too much shear though.

djmike wrote:I noticed the infamous "pink" color was back on qpf. Isn't that the new color they had to create for Harvey because Harvey was "off the charts" on rainfall?

The WPC broke out the pink color too with Harvey.

Texas city has already clocked 9 inches and galveston is flooding in some parts Dayum we dont need ANY of this.....but it will just exacerbate the soggy situation Yeah you guys down there have been getting pounded, but most of SETX hasn’t seen that much. It’s been along the coast and the east side ...

days 1-7 updated - important to always check the time issued on graphics https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif Judging by that, I wouldn’t be too concerned about anything. Doesn’t look like much will come from this. i hope you're being sarcastic. Al...

unome wrote:days 1-7 updated - important to always check the time issued on graphics

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

Judging by that, I wouldn’t be too concerned about anything. Doesn’t look like much will come from this.

mcheer23 wrote:EURO ensembles are clustered between brownsville and corpus. Actually shifted south a little.

That’s surprising.

I remember 1998, it was the 1st time our home & neighborhood flooded from a tropical cyclone Frances on 9/11 - I've had an obsession with weather ever since https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/frances1998.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/frances98setxrain.gif I’m kind of...

The Euro run from earlier this morning gives basically all of SETX 5-10” of rain with isolated higher totals possible.

The GFS does nothing with it, the ICON is into the mid TX coast as a tropical storm or weak cane, the CMC has what’s probably a weak tropical storm into Northern Mexico, and the Euro has a depression or weak tropical storm into the mid TX coast.

We will need to monitor NE Mexico/S Texas surface obs and satellite data suggest another MCV and surface low are beginning to develop. That feature will likely be the next heavy rainfall maker overnight into Monday for our Region. Keep an eye on radar to our SW for further development during the ev...

jasons wrote:This morning: rain to my south
This afternoon: rain to my north

Story of my Texas life.

We’ve had 6.5” here in the past ten days including 2.5” today.

Big time rains here in Wharton County right now. We probably just picked up an easy 2” in just 30 minutes. I’ll have to check the gauge later. I saw this on HRRR last night, but it was supposed to fizzle out before it got here. Well that definitely didn’t happen lol

Rip76 wrote:

mcheer23 wrote:12z GFS shows another low pressure enter the BOC....moves it north into SETX

Time frame?

About 8–10 days from now.

Pretty much got nothing today. I was worried that was going to happen. I haven't really received much rain over the last couple of weeks. Hoping tomorrow morning I get a little more as orientation of on flow shore would support that idea a little better. I’m out in the country between Wharton and E...