Moderate risk added to the Ark-La-Tex.

.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022 After highs reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon, temperatures will be slow to cool off as cloud cover begins to fill back in. Mostly cloudy skies and an increasing low level jet will keep overnight lows in th...

Enhanced risk expanded and now includes the northern suburbs of the metro area. spcd2catd.us_sc.png Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN/NORTHEASTER...

Enhanced risk area expanded. Severe weather is still conditional for the southern half of SE Texas( mainly based on timing of the front). Severe weather is more likely for the northern counties of the area. spcd2cat.us_sc.png Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT...

Not very often that SPC does an update to the Day 3 outlook. A moderate risk may be coming for those north of us. Wouldn't be surprised to see portions of SE Texas put into an enhanced risk also.(Bryan/College station is on the southern edge of the enhanced risk area.) day3otlk_0730.gif Day 3 Convec...

Did we fast forward to spring?? Severe weather is pretty common in October and November in the south.In fact SE Texas on average gets more tornadoes in the Fall than it does in the Spring.Its just in the last decade the severe weather season that we typically get in Fall has not really been as acti...

Yep that's the question how progressive will the system be. There will be a greater chance of severe weather if the system comes in during the evening hours,verses overnight.Models are still in some disagreement on timing.If i had to guess on what areas will have the greatest threat of seeing severe...

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday across portions of the s...

It sure is nice to see the widespread rain on radar. Models seem to have underestimated precip coverage today.

We need to start watching this weekend ,as a potent trough becomes negatively tilted over the state. There could be a tornado outbreak in Texas as a strong MCS/Squall line moves through with the front.Remember SE Texas gets more tornadoes on average in the Fall than it does during tornado season in ...

2.36" here.

At 1.72"so far for the day.Edit:now at over 2 inches now.

My street is now flooded been a while since that happened.

Its pouring here! ,rainfall rates definitely at 2+ inches an hour right now.

Why did the line get more organized after it passed my area?, not sure if thats a question that can really be answered but I have noticed that occasionally these squall lines will get more organized after they pass my area, maybe the environment was a little more stable in my area but a little more...

The line of storms are getting a little more potent and organized.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 11:14 am the ULL will be ejecting off to the NE, this line is our last opportunity for rainfall

No its not our last opportunity for rainfall today. Models have been showing since yesterday a secondary line of storms coming through tonight as the ULL passes,especially along and north of I-10.

Some of yall are using that term "bust" way too loosly these days. The MCS has developed as forecast this is not a bust. Just because some models have shown the upper end of what is possible if everything came together when it comes to qpf amounts(3-5 inches). The "official" fore...

Looking at the initialization of the latest HRRR run.And looking at the current radar not only here locally but also at the severe storms ongoing in the panhandle.The HRRR is under doing the storms ongoing at the moment and their area coverage.The NAM model which is more aggressive than the HRRR wit...

Storms are already forming to the southwest and moving into the metro.