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Euro goes border landfall

Im gonna bet 12z Euro stick with border landfall.

And the 12z Euro is running.

Also does it seem like the Euro is running a little late or is it just me?

Im guessing that unless 12z Euro comes way west, they wont move the track at 4pm.

12Z HMON with a big shift right, back toward SW LA

Where are yall seeing the 12z UKMET?

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:47 pm They won’t do anything until she leaves Cuba, IMO

Agreed. There has not been enough model movement to warrant a shift right now.

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:36 pm
sau27 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:20 pm 18z EPS very clear that members that stay south of southern coast of Cuba end up between Matagorda and Galveston.
Got a pic

18z EPS very clear that members that stay south of southern coast of Cuba end up between Matagorda and Galveston.

I’m becoming more confident that the overall set up is coming into view with Laura. It’s going to come down to intensity which is a crapshoot to forecast.

12z Euro ensemble is the same story. Weaker members further east stronger members into Texas.

12z euro is fairly weak. That goes along with everything we have been thinking weaker goes further East. I’d bet the 12z ensembles still have the stronger solutions pointed further west.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:36 pm Yeah HWRF will come in further w. How much depends on when it turns.

Won't even mention the strength...

HA! It would be noteworthy if the HWRF didn’t have a cat 4 or 5.

06z Euro op takes Laura into Central LA coast, but 06z Euro ensemble is spread up and down the TX coast from Brownsville to the LA border.

Just saw a post from Jack Sillin saying that a stronger Marco moving north actually could help expand/strengthen the SE ridge due to additional heat release from the storm. Never thought of that.

12Z Euro ensemble still has Laura as a possible threat for us. All of the stronger members are in Texas while the weaker ones go to Louisiana.

00z Euro ensemble very similar to 18z. Laura moves west across the gulf towards Texas. Members from Mexico to SW LA.

18z Euro ensemble is uh, interesting. Sends Laura anywhere between here and bay of Campeche.

HMON just HMON-ing

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