Search found 40 matches

by Met Tech
Tue Sep 07, 2010 11:36 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat
Replies: 102
Views: 21118

Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

Models are still having a hard time initializing the low in the right place, even the hourly-updating high-res models like RUC, Rapid Refresh, and HRRR are putting it too far west and too slow. Many seem to keep the axis of heavy rain west of Houston because of it.
by Met Tech
Tue Sep 07, 2010 11:08 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat
Replies: 102
Views: 21118

Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

Did a zoomed-in KWRF run for you guys again, but it's doing poorly with the east-of-track movement just like the others and I don't think it'll do a good job with totals. I'll try again in a bit. Just for fun, here's what it does from 18Z today through 18Z tomorrow (unfortunately, it's not counting ...
by Met Tech
Tue Sep 07, 2010 10:36 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat
Replies: 102
Views: 21118

Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

Nice increase in convection around the center in the past hour or so.

Image
by Met Tech
Tue Sep 07, 2010 9:32 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat
Replies: 102
Views: 21118

Re: Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

I was telling a few folks this last night ... these tropical systems almost NEVER behave as progged once they make landfall. There always seems to be a few surprises with the track. And here we are with HERMINE, who is definitely moving more northeast than predicted. [/i] Yesterday it looked like a...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:45 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 70306

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

I love this radar too. It is probably the best radar system out there. I just started using place-files and wow! They sure are useful and I am going to start looking for some more soon. [/quote] ----------------------------------- I even have my 73 year old grandma operating GRLEVEL3 on her compute...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:42 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 70306

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

I'll give it that but seems to be more in character of the NAM. I think someone on Eastern was mentioning that there were plans to tweak it so it handled tropical systems better. I know the locals were readily dismissing the NAM and really isn't that unexpected with its tropical track record. HPC di...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:09 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 70306

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

Not surprising. Your computer has been cursed with all that NAM talk you were typing earlier. It obviously has migrated into your hard drive. :mrgreen: Haha. I should have known better than to stick up for that thing. Although, still seems it had the right idea of a tighter and stronger system comp...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:49 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 70306

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

Sorry I didn't get back to you guys with rainfall projections. I've had off and on computer problems today, and also when I made that double-nested run, the model didn't produce any rainfall anywhere, not even in Hermine which caused it to remain as a loose low wobbling around with no precip process...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:38 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 70306

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

I'm wondering about a core rain event myself, especially if it drifts along with the NHC track because it brings it in between Del Rio and San Antonio where my family lives (Sabinal) They have some botched flood-control road construction going on there and if this thing does an overnight dump it's g...
by Met Tech
Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:10 am
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Remnants of Hermine
Replies: 349
Views: 70306

Re: TS Hermine Gulf of Mexico

srainhoutx wrote:RECON may have had a mechanical issue. Data suggests they have turned around and are heading back to base.
D'oh!! I've been anxiously awaiting them getting into this thing while it's looking so good. Sure hope we don't miss an ob from the best part.