Not seeing much of a change today. It still looks like frozen precipitation will remain north and west of the region. Likely a pretty significant system for Central and North Texas with a lot of ice and sleet. More than likely just cold rain for most of us down here. The GFS still detaches some of t...

For Monday's storm models have the upper-level shortwave trough dipping further south and the coastal low developing further southeast across the GOM. As a result, a lot of the convection associated with a possible MCS may stay further south and west than initially anticipated. One more thing to kee...

Still not seeing much in the form of frozen precipitation for this area. North Texas and those in Central Texas have a better chance but the GFS is notorious for keeping too much moisture around post-frontal. There is a little bit of low and mid-level lift along the coast towards the end of the week...

It looks like next week we could see the coldest temperatures of this winter across the region. With that said, models have pulled back some on how far south the upper-level trough will dig. Instead of the cold air funneling straight south, it's tracking further east and remaining over the Central P...

Hey everyone, my apologies for the tardiness in updating the SSL certificate. It should be updated now. I will try to make sure I reissue the certificate next year before it expires. As Grimes mentioned we never collect any payment details on this site and the only information we collect is your ema...

winds have calmed quite a bit here at home north of the heights. We had wind gusts reach the 50s and 60s with a lot of twigs and limbs scattered around the yard. Over 400K without power across the region

This is much worse than I thought it would be. A bunch of my coworkers in SE Harris county have lost power. Winds are very impressive for this system. It’s crazy. I didn’t think they’d be this impressive. That was something I was concerned about once the flooding risk (for Houston) diminished. A bu...

Rip76 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:56 am This is much worse than I thought it would be.

A bunch of my coworkers in SE Harris county have lost power. Winds are very impressive for this system.

Reed Timmer has some good video down in Matagorda. Winds are pretty gusty down there.

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/stat ... 7975678980

06Z ECMWF is a little slower with the turn to the northeast and shows most of the region seeing 5-10 inches

I know I should wait for recon but I can't help myself. :) Either a reformation to the ne is starting to take place and there will be a track adjustment at 10. Or the current center is having issues and drifting to the e before resuming a heading on the current track and delaying landfall by about ...

my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb.. Tropical storm force winds later this evening into the overnight hours with gusts possibly reaching hurricane status. Flooding wi...

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:48 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?

Last I saw was around 7 AM if it goes to Matagorda Bay.

Center relocation has moved up landfall by several hours.

When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right? The GFS & ECMWF are showing landfall around 5-10pm this afternoon. The ECMWF is a little further west but slower overall while the GFS shows landfall across Matagorda Bay. Based on the latest radar data I would probably aim for c...

Storm still seems off to me... Anyways recon is finally headed towards the storm and will alleviate whatever I think I'm seeing. Fwiw both hurricane models had a fairly decent shift up the coast being this close to landfall. HWRF shows a reformation like the GFS. It's possible we see a jump east la...

KGYF which is approximately 120NM NE of the center is reporting wind speeds of 53kts currently. While the ob is ~200ft above the water it's still impressive the distance that tropical storm-force winds will likely be felt during landfall

Southwesterly shear is still impacting the storm a good bit. The center of Nicholas still remains southeast of Brownsville and with not much additional convection firing overhead, it may be difficult to sustain some of the convection further east. Not the healthiest storm, but still a lot more devel...

Nicholas still remains sheared to the east and while strengthening has occurred we need to monitor if additional convection can fire to the west.

00Z ECMWF has shifted towards the other models with landfall near Matagorda Bay and a track to the northeast. No stall this time. It shows similar rainfall totals like the GFS with most seeing 4-8 inches and pockets of 10-15. Max wind gusts could reach close to 60mph in the city though.

UKMET has shifted east and is more in line with the GFS