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Sure is dead up in here I think the members are tired and just need a break until the next round of model runs. :) Also it's a holiday so many people probably slept in/ are busy with family and friends. I suspect as mentioned by cperk activity will pick up once new model runs start to come in.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:11 pm Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall.

GFS is back to fully decoupling the low and mid-level centers. If that type of situation plays out a landfall across Central Mexico is likely

Beryl is starting to feel the impacts of shear and land interactions. The next 6-12 hours will be key to see what the storm looks like as it moves into the Western Caribbean

sswinney wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:04 pm Still a CAT 3 and starting to show some impressive cold cloud tops around the center again. While pressure has increased and winds have come down, could it be starting to strengthen again?

According to the 1PM advisory it's still a CAT 4 with 140mph winds

EPS is more south (like 00Z was) because it shows Beryl weaker....also the same reason why HWRF is more south. Its going to really depend on how much land interaction Beryl has with the Yucatan and where it comes off. Exactly. The biggest factor to the track here is intensity of Beryl once it enter...

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:26 am
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:19 am Surprised no one mentioned the 06Z European AI
Please do elaborate.

Let's keep the conversation on the subject of Beryl. Today will likely be a big day to determine the impacts of shear on the storm and hopefully a better consensus with models.

Is there an eye wall replacement happening? Heard there was, but not sure it’s accurate. Yes, EWRC is currently happening. It will be close for Grenada and the other Windward Islands if this completes before landfall. Recon missions currently in the storm plus satellite data indicate the storm is r...

In extreme situations similar to Beryl where global models can't properly resolve the steep pressure gradient it can cause higher than normal track/intensity errors. This is why some of the nested hurricane models are performing better so far and might be a better indication of how shear and land co...

Pretty remarkable Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1135 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND BERYL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BE...

What are the chances Beryl just slams into Tampico Mexico? What is the “likely” scenario landfall in your opinion right now? Way too early to say. Not only are we talking about a landfall a week plus out we have the extra factor of land interaction over the Central Caribbean to deal with. There are...

Question for one of our members once a hurricane develops its structure under certain conditions can it expand in size. Definitely not a Met, but I believe they can. I remember Katrina blowing up. . Ike too Eyewall replacement cycles can definitely expand the size of the storm. Interactions with la...

We will need to continue to watch where banding sets up tonight and tomorrow but looking more and more likely that Houston and those not along the coast will see a best case scenario for this time of year. Scattered tropical showers to keep temperatures down and keep yards happy.

The trend overnight has been away from an organized system tracking into Southern Mexico and more of a broad trough axis with multiple disturbances rotating into the NW Gulf of Mexico. The heavy rainfall threat will definitely increase for Texas and Louisiana if this trend continues. Both the GFS an...

06Z EPS has trended more towards the 00z operational run with a split in ensembles over the Western Gulf of Mexico. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a vort max could form and detach from the monsoonal trough, rotating across the Northern Yucatan but I remain hesitant to fully latch onto that so...

Hey everyone, I hope everyone is doing well and staying dry and safe after a turbulent May. As we head into a likely active hurricane season we have decided to promote Mcheer23 as a moderator. Obviously, I have been absent on the board lately so having more active people that can keep an eye on issu...

I got hit pretty hard in my neighborhood just north of the heights. Lots of trees down across the area and power is out for the whole region. These were probably some of the strongest winds I have seen since Ike.

I am happy to hear most of the feedback has been positive about the changes! Happy Easter to everyone, it looks to remain warm tomorrow before a cold front moves in early next week. Some severe weather for the Southern Plains but capping is expected to remain strong down here . Not too long until Hu...

Hey everyone, thanks for the positive feedback. I'm happy to hear most people like the changes!

Hey everyone, As you probably noticed the forum has received some pretty dramatic updates. The goal was to create a more professional and modern looking website while also upgrading a lot of the back-end software that was very outdated. The site is now fully up to date allowing for a more secure env...

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