Search found 3384 matches

by Andrew
Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:46 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Sure is dead up in here I think the members are tired and just need a break until the next round of model runs. :) Also it's a holiday so many people probably slept in/ are busy with family and friends. I suspect as mentioned by cperk activity will pick up once new model runs start to come in.
by Andrew
Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:16 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Scott747 wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:11 pm Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall.
GFS is back to fully decoupling the low and mid-level centers. If that type of situation plays out a landfall across Central Mexico is likely
by Andrew
Wed Jul 03, 2024 4:51 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Beryl is starting to feel the impacts of shear and land interactions. The next 6-12 hours will be key to see what the storm looks like as it moves into the Western Caribbean
by Andrew
Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:11 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

sswinney wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:04 pm Still a CAT 3 and starting to show some impressive cold cloud tops around the center again. While pressure has increased and winds have come down, could it be starting to strengthen again?

According to the 1PM advisory it's still a CAT 4 with 140mph winds
by Andrew
Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:06 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

EPS is more south (like 00Z was) because it shows Beryl weaker....also the same reason why HWRF is more south. Its going to really depend on how much land interaction Beryl has with the Yucatan and where it comes off. Exactly. The biggest factor to the track here is intensity of Beryl once it enter...
by Andrew
Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:37 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

cperk wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:26 am
srainhoutx wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:19 am Surprised no one mentioned the 06Z European AI
Please do elaborate.
by Andrew
Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:13 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Let's keep the conversation on the subject of Beryl. Today will likely be a big day to determine the impacts of shear on the storm and hopefully a better consensus with models.
by Andrew
Mon Jul 01, 2024 6:58 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Is there an eye wall replacement happening? Heard there was, but not sure it’s accurate. Yes, EWRC is currently happening. It will be close for Grenada and the other Windward Islands if this completes before landfall. Recon missions currently in the storm plus satellite data indicate the storm is r...
by Andrew
Sun Jun 30, 2024 9:35 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

In extreme situations similar to Beryl where global models can't properly resolve the steep pressure gradient it can cause higher than normal track/intensity errors. This is why some of the nested hurricane models are performing better so far and might be a better indication of how shear and land co...
by Andrew
Sun Jun 30, 2024 10:44 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Pretty remarkable Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1135 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND BERYL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BE...
by Andrew
Sun Jun 30, 2024 9:47 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

What are the chances Beryl just slams into Tampico Mexico? What is the “likely” scenario landfall in your opinion right now? Way too early to say. Not only are we talking about a landfall a week plus out we have the extra factor of land interaction over the Central Caribbean to deal with. There are...
by Andrew
Sun Jun 30, 2024 9:31 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 492059

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Question for one of our members once a hurricane develops its structure under certain conditions can it expand in size. Definitely not a Met, but I believe they can. I remember Katrina blowing up. . Ike too Eyewall replacement cycles can definitely expand the size of the storm. Interactions with la...
by Andrew
Tue Jun 18, 2024 4:36 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2024
Replies: 657
Views: 285694

Re: June 2024 (Flood Watch in effect at 7pm)

We will need to continue to watch where banding sets up tonight and tomorrow but looking more and more likely that Houston and those not along the coast will see a best case scenario for this time of year. Scattered tropical showers to keep temperatures down and keep yards happy.
by Andrew
Sat Jun 15, 2024 8:52 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2024
Replies: 657
Views: 285694

Re: June 2024

The trend overnight has been away from an organized system tracking into Southern Mexico and more of a broad trough axis with multiple disturbances rotating into the NW Gulf of Mexico. The heavy rainfall threat will definitely increase for Texas and Louisiana if this trend continues. Both the GFS an...
by Andrew
Fri Jun 14, 2024 10:05 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2024
Replies: 657
Views: 285694

Re: June 2024

06Z EPS has trended more towards the 00z operational run with a split in ensembles over the Western Gulf of Mexico. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a vort max could form and detach from the monsoonal trough, rotating across the Northern Yucatan but I remain hesitant to fully latch onto that so...
by Andrew
Wed Jun 05, 2024 10:20 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Newest Moderator
Replies: 8
Views: 24730

Newest Moderator

Hey everyone, I hope everyone is doing well and staying dry and safe after a turbulent May. As we head into a likely active hurricane season we have decided to promote Mcheer23 as a moderator. Obviously, I have been absent on the board lately so having more active people that can keep an eye on issu...
by Andrew
Thu May 16, 2024 11:01 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May 2024
Replies: 849
Views: 305710

Re: May 2024

I got hit pretty hard in my neighborhood just north of the heights. Lots of trees down across the area and power is out for the whole region. These were probably some of the strongest winds I have seen since Ike.
by Andrew
Sat Mar 30, 2024 9:01 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: March 2024
Replies: 362
Views: 222268

Re: March 2024

I am happy to hear most of the feedback has been positive about the changes! Happy Easter to everyone, it looks to remain warm tomorrow before a cold front moves in early next week. Some severe weather for the Southern Plains but capping is expected to remain strong down here . Not too long until Hu...
by Andrew
Sat Mar 30, 2024 8:57 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Updates
Replies: 6
Views: 39378

Re: Updates

Hey everyone, thanks for the positive feedback. I'm happy to hear most people like the changes!
by Andrew
Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:38 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Updates
Replies: 6
Views: 39378

Updates

Hey everyone, As you probably noticed the forum has received some pretty dramatic updates. The goal was to create a more professional and modern looking website while also upgrading a lot of the back-end software that was very outdated. The site is now fully up to date allowing for a more secure env...