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What a difference a few days can make. Heck even just a day. Remember the conversations about Beryl and 95L in the gulf? It's not over.... yet. As of today.. A Tropical Storm could be on tap, but it's in such bad shape right now. Who knows. Actually developing a CDO over the last two hours. If it's...

Looks like convection is trying to form near the LLC. A lot of dry air has been ingested into the system and the LLC still remains mostly naked. Conditions for development are forecasted to improve throughout the day but most models indicate significant development won't occur until that last 6-12 h...

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:37 pm
Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:46 pm Say this goes in at Corpus or a little North, when would conditions start to go downhill in the Houston Metro area?

Monday evening?
Just wanted to post this again.

Most models indicate Monday morning is when we would start to see impacts

GFS has a one-two punch for Beryl with moderate shear expected once it enters the GOM and then plenty of dry air entrainment across the Central Gulf. These two things will need to be monitored for how quickly they can be overcomed. That will ultimately decide how quickly Beryl can intensify. Most mo...

Rip76 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:08 pm West, maybe even SW.

Storm movement? That is still a mix of west and WNW

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:56 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:50 pm The cone is much larger now for potential landfalls, up to San Luis pass
I thought the cone was based on stats of 5 years of data and not on track confidence?

It is, the cone does not change size. Current error rates are listed at the link below

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Hard to tell based on satellite but Grand Cayman radar might be showing the westward bend finally happening. Moisture is wrapping around the southwest edge of the eye too but still a lack of convection across the southern half of the storm and shear is still influencing the storm. Not much change in...

Recon still shows latitude being gained.

Possible clearing of the eye

HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 82.6W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESS...

Sure is dead up in here I think the members are tired and just need a break until the next round of model runs. :) Also it's a holiday so many people probably slept in/ are busy with family and friends. I suspect as mentioned by cperk activity will pick up once new model runs start to come in.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:11 pm Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall.

GFS is back to fully decoupling the low and mid-level centers. If that type of situation plays out a landfall across Central Mexico is likely

Beryl is starting to feel the impacts of shear and land interactions. The next 6-12 hours will be key to see what the storm looks like as it moves into the Western Caribbean

sswinney wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:04 pm Still a CAT 3 and starting to show some impressive cold cloud tops around the center again. While pressure has increased and winds have come down, could it be starting to strengthen again?

According to the 1PM advisory it's still a CAT 4 with 140mph winds

EPS is more south (like 00Z was) because it shows Beryl weaker....also the same reason why HWRF is more south. Its going to really depend on how much land interaction Beryl has with the Yucatan and where it comes off. Exactly. The biggest factor to the track here is intensity of Beryl once it enter...

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:26 am
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:19 am Surprised no one mentioned the 06Z European AI
Please do elaborate.

Let's keep the conversation on the subject of Beryl. Today will likely be a big day to determine the impacts of shear on the storm and hopefully a better consensus with models.

Is there an eye wall replacement happening? Heard there was, but not sure it’s accurate. Yes, EWRC is currently happening. It will be close for Grenada and the other Windward Islands if this completes before landfall. Recon missions currently in the storm plus satellite data indicate the storm is r...

In extreme situations similar to Beryl where global models can't properly resolve the steep pressure gradient it can cause higher than normal track/intensity errors. This is why some of the nested hurricane models are performing better so far and might be a better indication of how shear and land co...

Pretty remarkable Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1135 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND BERYL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BE...

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