weatherguy425 ah nvm it looks like the guidance just tries to spin something up in the caribbean instead of bringing in a system from the pacific, we will see Just keep an eye on the BOC, southern Gulf and western Caribbean. As said before, there is a lot of persistent storminess modeled by most gu...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:23 pm Euro has the pacific crossover occuring in about 4 days or so, CMC ensembles showing it, GEFS some as well, steering pattern looks very complicated though

There is no true Pacific crossover modeled on the 12Z ECMWF operational run.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:19 am GFS has this getting down to 993 mb lol

That would imply a tropical storm in a typical pressure-wind relationship. That said, there has been a bit of an uptick toward moderate or strong tropical storm status on today’s 12z run.

I don't believe the NWS current forecast of 60% chance of rain with thunderstorms likely for Brazoria County. Of course Charlie Brown doesn't run at the football till later tonight. Plenty of time for Lucy to yank it. 60% = scattered. There will probably be scattered passing downpours across Brazor...

The drought is pretty extensive throughout extreme southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. KIAH had a wet April and May before the really hot and dry stuff kicked in. Yep, when it was wet in the Houston metro area around May and on and off in June,the Golden Triangle was getting dry slotted. Am I c...

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 10:00 am Are things really that bad in Beaumont? You guys banked a ton of rain earlier in the season when the rest of us didnt get crap.

The drought is pretty extensive throughout extreme southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. KIAH had a wet April and May before the really hot and dry stuff kicked in.

Need to watch the potential crossover system this weekend… ^^ Even if a singular entity doesn’t survive the trek, most guidance favors lower pressures and persistent storminess in the BOC/Western Caribbean. Even if something does come of it wouldn't that heat dome block it from gaining latitude and...

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:36 am Need to watch the potential crossover system this weekend…

^^ Even if a singular entity doesn’t survive the trek, most guidance favors lower pressures and persistent storminess in the BOC/Western Caribbean.

It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing At least someone in Texas is getting some much needed rain,we're all in this together. ;) Exactly.... and it takes a chip at the drought. We can be choosers, right now. Plenty of h...

Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance Actually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward. How stoing it gets ...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 3:37 pm Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance

Actually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward.

Cpv17 lol it even has a hurricane in the eastern gulf, its actually very interesting to see the Euro be the aggressive model now, and the GFS not so much, its like the scripts have flipped lol crossover occurs in about 5-6 days so really not even fantasy range, thats a pretty respectable time frame...

The potential of an EPAC crossover. Some of the models have been hinting at it. Some solutions do show a true crossover. But, it’s a little more complicated than that and different operational models are spinning things up for different reasons. That said, longer range data has suggested wetter ano...

We have INVEST 91-L.

Whats this talk about the boc? The potential of an EPAC crossover. Some of the models have been hinting at it. Some solutions do show a true crossover. But, it’s a little more complicated than that and different operational models are spinning things up for different reasons. That said, longer rang...

Ar this point im never believing another model showing rain until el nino effects really start to kick in, this summer has been a joke and the models nothing more than a massive tease every time, the fact that areas like San Diego are going to see more rain in one day than we have seen all summer i...

Sure but any tropical systems that miss us south or east tend to just make it even hotter here. It's so parched at my house that my fence is falling down and I have to let my dogs out on leashes so they don't hurt their legs in the gigantic cracks in the yard. They are large enough to catch my own ...

Not looking good for us. Models currently keep the stupid death ridge firmly in place and bury this system at the Mexico border. I wouldn't hold out hope for any rain at all. Still needed rainfall for *parts of Texas and still better for the bigger picture. Also, lets keep an wye on the bigger patt...

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 8:55 am Gotta love it...half think we will half don't lol

I think everyone is being realistic with the present uncertainty and no one is fully comiting to anything just yet. That said, odds favor the middle and lower Texas coast for widespread rain.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 17, 2023 5:05 pm 18z ICON is north agaib lol

Some of what is also happening is a more robust circulation is more likely to be impacted by the 500 MB flow (WSW, thanks to ridge). A stronger circulation may have a tendency to head to west, if not WSW.