Search found 590 matches

by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

weatherguy425 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:01 pm
ECMWF just started running
Only 24-hours in, but ridging is a touch stronger, Texas trough is weaker... may be further west.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

ECMWF just started running
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Some structural notes...

Rate of intensification maybe more gradual today… Which many models indicated anyway… But the structure of the storm could favor strengthening up until landfall if shear, truly, isn’t as much of a factor as it approaches the coast.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

mcheer23 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:18 am
UKMET west shift...
GFS was just the start of the envelope... looking forward to having the entire package + ensembles out. I have to remind myself that we’re only talking 30-40 miles here, or so. Average error at this point? 80 miles, I believe.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

mcheer23 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:07 am
Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:06 am
snowman65 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:03 am
ensembles still pointing Galveston?
Ensembles are strong from Port O’Connor to High Island.
Basically where Crownweather has their cone....
12Z GEFS is out?
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:17 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Belmer wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:12 am
Kingwood36 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:11 am
Looks like the track didn't move .....again
Track hasn't been updated yet. They usually update things in increments within about 10 minutes. Usually public advisory is first, Discussion and then the track is one of the latter updates.
Little, if any, change
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:20 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Need to watch what’s actually happening in addition to model data.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:11 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

weatherguy425 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:19 am
06Z ECMWF. Curious to see if ensemble envelope continues to consolidate.
And here is the EPS... strong signal for a landfall somewhere along the upper Texas coast.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Trends do matter and continues to signal the potential for further left shifts.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:33 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100989

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Laura was upgraded to a hurricane post-advisory at 7:15 AM.