Search found 590 matches

by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:53 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Ace wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:46 am
I’m hearing talk about a Southern movement (or SW) in this AF run. Anyone noticing that?

The stats coming in are amazing too.
Not too different.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Has the recon data started coming in? Any idea when? Thanks in advance. Center is, technically, still south of 25°N; slightly south of where it appears on satellite. RECON just missed the center, but looking like another 1-2 MB pressure drop since last pass; 981 or 982 MB. EDIT: Drop had higher win...
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Something to keep an eye on that others have mentioned.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Global + ensemble 12Z suite.

It’s not smart to play games with threats this big. Even subtle changes that can happen 12-18 hours from landfall can impact track. The angle of our coastline makes even small changes impactful.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Did I board up my house in Baytown for no reason?? Has the storm changed it’s track? There will always be some uncertainty and risk in doing things that don’t turn out to be necessary. But, there remains enough uncertainty to prepare, no doubt about it. No big changes. Ironically, NHC track and con...
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Sustained winds are *estimated to be at 80MPH; no changes to landfall on track. Of course, some landfall adjustments are still possible.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Levi addresses current movement in the video, too (7:20ish) -

https://youtu.be/lCYk20429Ks
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:33 pm
FWIW: Matt is a Met but Eric is not.
Edited. Didn’t mean to be plural. Matt, most likely, produces the forecasts.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Is it possible Space City saw something with the ridge? Doubtful. It’s stronger and if they did, why not say it. Model hugging is terrible. There’s a 33% chance that it could go outside of the cone and it’s not going east of the cone. I’m confident in that. Matt is a great Met tasked with servicing...
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 94784

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

mcheer23 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:13 pm
Yup shift east by EURO
Yep - interesting.