Search found 590 matches

by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

How pathetic. All that wonderful rain wasted on useless boonies... There will be more threats over the next month. Let’s just hope for something weak, but honestly that’s not looking likely. The Gulf should recover from Laura within a week or so. Upwelling will be very significant. Water temperatur...
by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

I understand what the NHC has stated, and what is expected re: curvature and why. However, if you following the line of movement (see figure in that post) of the CoC over the last 24 hours it's rectilinear, not curvilinear. The NHC is going off degree of movement measured by aircraft recon. Hard to...
by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Thanks. Laura's CoC vector has not changed on average in the last 24 hours. She was on the right side of her projected path 24 hours ago, and now is in the middle. I'm not saying that Laura won't start turning to the NNW and eventually N (because she'll reach the western edge of the ridge), but emp...
by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

But at this point, with the size she’s attaining, even a 20 mile wobble = 10-20 higher MPH winds here potentially, right? It certainly can. 20 miles is pretty substantial. No sign of that yet. Here is a wonderful reference - a great follow on Twitter, btw. Thanks. Laura's CoC vector has not changed...
by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving west-northwest now northwest. Hard data from Recon indicates it, thankfully. However, wobbles can still happen. But, no true “missing the turn” or anything. But at this point, with the size she’s attaining, even a 20 mile wobble = 10-20 ...
by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

We definitely need to watch this closely because around this time is when Rita totally went off of the forecast. At this point I don’t see a real turn yet. Does anyone have anything that indicates the ridge may be stronger than expected? The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving...
by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

We definitely need to watch this closely because around this time is when Rita totally went off of the forecast. At this point I don’t see a real turn yet. Does anyone have anything that indicates the ridge may be stronger than expected? The turn has already begun - it’s very gradual. It was moving...
by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:50 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Scott747 wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:47 am
Low level recon is going in for a third fix. Does look like a pretty decent wobble to the n. They will confirm either way here in about 15 min.
With rapid deepening and an eyewall in the process of forming - unfortunately this one will be prone to wobbles, at least in the near-term.
by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Cromagnum wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:42 am
Looking at IR posted above it looks like a pretty good wobble to the north.
Please be careful judging movement (west or north) using IR. Towering storms rotating around a gradual clearing eye can give very convincing illusions.
by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:27 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2020:
Replies: 2421
Views: 100956

Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura

Ace wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:25 am
Does NHC just mean that the Tx/La border is Northwest?
It is a general term, often depending on the person who is writing. Generally, “northwest” can mean Texas and the western-half of the Louisiana coastline.