If this were any other model I would start worrying... https://i.postimg.cc/v10b8p6b/6z-gfs.jpg What people should take from this are a couple things...... 1) yes, it's the GFS operational at 10+ days. I'd trust an election in North Korea more than that. 2) various operational models have shown thi...

If this were any other model I would start worrying...

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 15, 2025 1:39 pm0.22”

It might've been 3" if you turned the guage sideways into the wind. Dang.

There should be a lucky few that get an isolated downpour later this afternoon into the early evening hours, but definitely nothing widespread. So far, coverage today has been less than yesterday at this time. And today’s rain chances were theoretically better. It’s still only 3:00 though…but still...

Seems to be expanding westward... and the cells in SanJacCo are gaining some strength

322 FXUS64 KHGX 031748 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 " the forecast has trended a bit more rainy." Ummm.... the forcast as of Tuesday morning mentioned no rain for the next several days north of I-10. We're at one ...

Been here 45 years and never seen such a rainy June that didn't include an Allison making landfall here.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 13, 2025 6:05 pm Wow. This could be a setup for some real heavy rains and severe weather with this stalled outflow running up against unspoiled southerly inflow at peak heating.

Yeah that was a fun little 4" here in Walden in just a couple of hours. Coming your way now...

I’m in a moderate drought with the threat of a major drought happening this summer and people wanna talk sh*t towards me about wanting rain. Makes sense. Hope you get some rain this weekend. Rain seems lately to be either north of I-10 and Hwy 1*5 or south. Rarely both. We had an inch, so sending s...

Well I finally made it back to Conroe... after a long stint in the sticks. I am quite LaDubious about the Lucy-based forecast upcoming arctic blast. It would be fun to see how the new place looks in a dusting of snow... but January hopes still exist. ;) What brings you back? And welcome back to civ...

Well I finally made it back to Conroe... after a long stint in the sticks.

I am quite LaDubious about the Lucy-based forecast upcoming arctic blast. It would be fun to see how the new place looks in a dusting of snow... but January hopes still exist.

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 07, 2024 10:56 am

tireman4 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 07, 2024 8:43 am We now have Invest 91L. Wxman57 thinks it lands as a 50kt Tropical Storm at the Texas/Louisiana border Wednesday.

Lol right...after his beryl screw up I'm done listening to him

When he says it's going elsewhere I start testing the generator and boarding up windows.

Yeah in a heartbeat we went from a forecast of much-needed heavy rainfall to lets-hope-for 10 drops and pray that your house doesn't get destroyed.

I used to love watching weather developments. Now it's something I dread thinking about any more.

Breaking News: A "band" is coming onshore. Let's see how far it can make it before dry air and subsidence can crush it.

This will be a transitory high, its only going to be here for 2-3 days and the. it moves off, models are in agreement on a front moving into our area late week Yep, exactly. After Thursday we could be done with the upper 90’s to low 100’s till next summer. Huge pattern change coming. So many Nancy’...

It just blows me away that we're on the dirty side of a tropical disturbance just off our coast in mid August and we're barely even getting some cloud cover from it.

We can analyze the heck out of the daily regime... but when harking back to 2011 we all know that drought begets drought... only broken by a very big tropical surge of some form. When we see the daily drift of rich moisture moving our way from Louisiana, only to go poof at the border... it's obvious...

I don't know how Jason's BY is faring, but east Montgomery County is winning the Texas Lottery today.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:10 pm Lucy trolls again.

I can't even get her to troll around here anymore. Not a drop in 33 days.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:43 pm 0.00"

Same here. Did yours come down all at once, or over a period of several hours?