EURO Forecast


GFS Forecast

EURO Ensemble forecast for the West Pacific. West Pacific or Typhoon Basin is the most active basin in the world.

Hurricanes have hit Texas in October and November. November 1527 November 1590-Possible landfall October 21, 1631 Hurricane October 2-6th, 1837 Racer’s Storm November 5, 1839 Galveston Hurricane October 5, 1842 October 17, 1848 Hurricane October 2-3, 1867 October 12th, 1880 Tropical Storm October 12...

The water off of Korea, Japan, and Alaska are quite warm.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Forecast models for this area of low pressure.

Tropical development has highest chance in the Caribbean starting next week.

https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1833992602565361727 Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach #Francine has made landfall as a Category 2 #hurricane in Louisiana - the 3rd continental US hurricane landfall this year (Beryl, Debby). 8 other years since 1900 have had 3+ continental US hurricane landfalls by ...

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1835172468308242652 Eric Webb @webberweather Another reason I suspect this year's "busted" Atlantic Hurricane Season forecasts were forced largely by "internal" variability from the extratropics rather than say a poleward shift in the Africa ITC...

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1834675543817732353 Eric Webb @webberweather Jun-Jul-Aug North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index correlation w/ N Atlantic SLP (left), & Jun-Jul-Aug N Atlantic SLP anomalies for non-El Nino hurricane seasons w/ < 100 ACE (n = 14 years) (top right), and this year...

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.2ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 cooled.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed, except for Region 4, which cooled.

Francine is headed East to Central Louisiana so we are in the clear in Texas. Hopefully that is it for Hurricane season in the gulf as we start to get move fronts pushing through the state Please read my response on the Francine thread. First, we are not in the clear. Beaumont will feel more than w...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 1:25 pm Looks to be a big big rainmaker if anything, and even a sloppy sheared system can bring significant impacts especially in the flooding rains department

Flooding can be really nasty. Like Harvey, Imelda, or Allison.

Lemons are sour. Tropical development is riffed with uncertainty.

If the cold front comes and goes over the Gulf of Mexico, could we see something tropical spin up? I know that has happened in the past, like Hurricane Alicia.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled.

Caribbean wave struggling but worthy of monitoring, while the surprisingly muted Atlantic plods forward September 3, 2024 at 1:39 pm by Matt Lanza Headlines A tropical wave in the Caribbean maintains about a 30 percent chance to develop in the coming days. Model guidance doesn’t quite eliminate tha...

I’m not really concerned about anything right now. We have about 3-4 weeks left of hurricane season in Texas. Something is just way off with this season. No one saw this coming. Not that I’m complaining. Hurricanes can make landfall on Texas in November. Very rare occurrence, which last happened in...

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:53 am I’m surprised that we have never recorded any snowfall in Houston in September.

Kidding

It could of snowed in Houston in September during the Ice Age.

Tropics Fall Silent for Now https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/tropics-fall-silent-for-now The Saharan dust is keeping a lid on any development. The Bell has Rung, So Why are Forecast Models So Muted? https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/the-bell-has-rung-so-why-are-forecast Other factors come to ...