This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled, except for Region 1+2, which warmed up.

I'm starting to buy in more with the various forecast showing Texas being one of the hotspots this year. I am very concern with the persistent weakness that has been over the state the last month or so. The continuation of this pattern through May could cause a feedback loop, with saturated soils o...

The Euro has been far more accurate of the models and HRRR hasn't been bad on the mesos. The transition from La Niña to El Niño sees to be allowing more energy further south than the last 10 years (on average). The weather has been more like the 90s. A bit wetter for us. There have been a lot of cl...

Pretty big difference once again between the Euro and GFS. Euro says more rain is on the way and GFS not so much. I'm in Euro's corner for this round.... The Euro has been far more accurate of the models and HRRR hasn't been bad on the mesos. The transition from La Niña to El Niño sees to be allowi...

Weather forecasting is often comes with uncertainty. May and spring are more unpredictable. I remember in some Mays, the forecast called for no to moderate rain and turns out to be heavy rain.

The rainfall amounts are on par with tropical weather systems. The Tax Day 2016 and Brenham 2016 rain level. I was just thinking how this spring is giving me a lot of 2016 vibes. I actually think that people who are missing out now might be glad they did later on this month. In 2016, the rain reall...

The rainfall amounts are on par with tropical weather systems. The Tax Day 2016 and Brenham 2016 rain level.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2024 10:09 pm I believe Saturdays rain chance may need to be raised and that’s exactly why I said earlier about I’m not so sure about a dry pattern developing after tomorrow.

That is what I am thinking too. These disturbances and thunderstorms are hard to forecast.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2024 8:27 pm Really bad storms out in central Texas south of Abilene. Lots of tornadoes.

I looked at Doppler radar and see thunderstorms in Central Texas and some firing up over Mexico.

If the forecast models are any indications, Houston area could see heavy rain.

If thunderstorms move faster, more likely for strong winds. Slower moving means heavy rain and possible for flooding. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HGX&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 635 FXUS64 KHGX 020001 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion N...

If the HRRR forecast model is any indication, it could get nasty.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2024 8:50 pm Looks like the same places that got rain a couple days ago are gonna get it again tomorrow night into early Thursday.

Let's hope not.

Picked up 1.12” here, portions of east Harris County picked up 3-6 inches yesterday. Went as expected then. 6.41 inches was our final tally. Storms kept forming over the house. Fortunately, after midnight the MCV moved south... ...but the analog for me in terms of round after round after round of h...

This current storm complex is very reminiscent of the May 2015 Memorial Day Flooding event with this one shifted to the north & east with less areal coverage and a shorter duration as compared to the 2015 event. https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxevents/ewx-20150524.pdf https://blog.hmns.org/2...

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.8ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed from last week. It complicates El Nino/La Nina forecasts.

I do not a good feeling about this. When there is severe weather, it ends up being a heavy rain event for Houston area.

Apr 29, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Houston area has Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms. SPC AC 290112 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS...

Another Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=HGX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC225-313-471-290230- /O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0073.240429T0142Z-240429T0230Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thundersto...

I looked at NWS Houston Doppler radar. The rainfall totals are 7 inches so far. I would not be surprised if some areas see a foot of rain once it is all over. Here is the Personal Weather Station (PWS) near College Station. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXBRYAN147 They got over 7 inche...