My two cents: the 12z GFS had a not-too-surprising hiccup, and our area will be back to an even snowier trend by tonight's 0z run.

Quick question regarding a potential coastal low developing in conjunction with this system. Are the forecast models still picking up on this/accounting for it in their precip projections? (I am on blackberry and don't have access to the models at the moment). If not, I would assume it is still &quo...

LOL. SCSLAND, I think the trends are mighty stacked against you, my friend.

I just keep thinking about how off the forecasters were for the Dallas area's recent snowfall, as well as srain's admonition that at 48 hrs out, forecasts are far from set in stone. I like that the Houston/Galveston NWS referred to the winter weather "headache." Will be happy with anything...

Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston. Link? Snow has fallen in March in Houston. The last time it happened was March 10, 1932, which is the latest recorded snowfa...

Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston.

From FWD: GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE/LL HOLD THE CURRENT FORECAST INTACT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 2-4 INCHES FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN METROPLEX WITH ISOLATED SWATCHES OF 5-8 INCHES FOR BANDED SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 1...

I will certainly not be complaining if the 0z GFS verifies, but I am almost more inclined to follow the NAM with regard to its heavier precip totals.

I took great interest in Jeff's mention of the possibility of melted snow freezing Wednesday morning along and north of I-10. If the 18z GFS were to verify, early Wednesday morning the snow would really just be getting started for parts of the city in this area. Things could get mighty interesting...

The development of a coastal trough or low certainly makes the picture more interesting, doesn't it? Could prolong precip in SE Texas but also wouldn't it provide warmer, overrunning moisture above the surface and dampen the air column? I am not well-versed enough in meteorology to have an answer f...

I sure do like the 18z GFS run. If this verifies, there is precip lingering around all the way through hour 72 (6 pm Wednesday!), with the freezing line well into the Gulf. To me, that would indicate that everyone in the city would see snow falling at some point with this system. Hopefully the overn...

I know that we are all focused on this Tuesday, but I did notice a discussion on another forum about the latest Euro run picking up another potential winter weather event for Texas around day 10.

FYI--For Houston on Tuesday evening, NWS has increased the chances to 50% for "rain and snow, mainly before midnight." Regarding Conroe, they say: Tuesday: A chance of rain before noon, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 44. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of prec...

wxdata wrote:Snow in Texas 12z NAM vs 12z GFS

Interesting wxdata, especially since the NAM can be biased on the "warm" side.

I realize that I may be going against some current model soundings, but as we are still more than 48 hours out, I myself am not yet ready to foreclose the possibility of more than a few flakes that melt on impact. Maybe we will get enough that it will stay on the ground even if surface temps are a l...

Well, the way it looks to me anyway, if you combine the precip forecast from the latest NAM run with the latest temp forecast from the 18z GFS (since the NAM can be biased on the warm side), then it looks like we could potentially get more snow than previously discussed. The NAM appears to show heav...

Srain, will the 0z runs tonight be the first to incorporate the latest data from the final G-IV recon mission this afternoon? I'll check on that later this evening. The notice usually comes out just prior to the run from the NCEP. I do have plans this evening, but I'll try to take a look. The G-IV ...

Srain, will the 0z runs tonight be the first to incorporate the latest data from the final G-IV recon mission this afternoon?

don wrote:Canadian model looks nice if you want snow around here:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/f84.gif

Thanks don. Since we are only three days out, I will gladly accept any and all forecasts showing snow for Houston.

Looks like it will be mighty close if the 12Z GFS verifies. Portastorm (Austin area) and those in College Station as well as NW Harris County and points E may just have a shot... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_072.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/anal...