This run is more of a bust, but the 0z runs will be telling. After that we're nearly in Nowcasting. I suppose that depends on your location. NWS had no mention of wintry precipitation for metro Houston until this afternoon. Now they have a 30% chance overnight Thursday. Wintry mischief gone from ou...

The trend is your friend… I agree with this. It seems like there’s been a trend that with each passing model run being slightly more aggressive than the one before it. This run is more of a bust, but the 0z runs will be telling. After that we're nearly in Nowcasting. I suppose that depends on your ...

NWS with 30% chance of wintry mix in metro Houston Thursday night.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... ec6mBZMHDs

The 0Z Canadian is showing a winter storm with the first piece of energy similar to the GEFS(the rain that it shows over the metro is actually sleet looking at the soundings).FWIW the 0z GFS now produces some light moisture from the first system.So maybe its a start of a trend towards the ensemble....

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:37 pm GFS starting to go toward its ensemble. 0z op is colder then the previous

No snow so far, through 12 am Saturday.

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:25 pm You got to be kidding me:

Some thoughts might be helpful to those unfamiliar with that map.

6z GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011606/gfs_asnow_scus_33.png I don’t but that dry slot over metro Houston either. Lots of exciting snow potential ahead both next weekend and still the weekend after with even more per the 6z GFS. Encouraging to see the systems not get...

Plenty of snow for Houston in 18z GFS for another system the last weekend of January. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2022&model_mm=01&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=18&fhour=312&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=non...

8-) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022011512/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022011512/gem_asnow_us_40.png To sleep, perchance to dream. Nice to see the 540 line south of Houston, but no one in Houston sees snow according to th...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 30, 2021 10:23 pm CPV17 gotcha! The NAM is the only meso model showing this right now, not sure how good the NAM is with wintry precip though

Any time you get a short-term model, any model, showing snow in Houston it’s an eye-opener. Certainly something worth keeping an eye on.

Wxman57 says heavy rain out of here (Houston) by 9 am Tuesday, and any slow movement would happen after it moves through here and affect areas well to our east.

Channel 13’s model that incorporated the 10 pm NHC data was just discussed on the newscast and showed Houston with a 40% chance of tropical storm force winds.

Latest NHC guidance and eastward shift translates to better situation in terms of flood impacts for Houston, with heavier rainfall amounts being offshore and to our east.

For a refreshing, “hype-free “ writeup, check out this informative piece:

https://spacecityweather.com/upgrading- ... -nicholas/

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:54 pm

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:47 pm Most recent EURO rainfall total forecast.


It has 42 inches of rain over Houston area. It far different from 61 inches of rain in Fayettesville.

looks like harvey 2 to me...

It’s one model, and an outlier. Houston is not facing Harvey 2.

From wxman57 over at S2K, since he doesn’t post here much anymore. “ Oh, it may well stall. When it does, it may be an exposed swirl with heavy rain WAY to the east in Louisiana. Models indicate strong west wind aloft over TX. I don't think we'll see a "core dump". Squalls may train over s...

For some perspective, courtesy of David Paul. Harvey scarred many people and lives. It’s important to keep things on an even keel here. “It's too early to tell exactly what neighborhoods, which parts of town, will see the highest totals, but models suggest some spots could see 15"-20" by W...

Since we are in a lull for the moment, I can't resist. Some of the conversations on here are just too out there to believe at times. https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/842/755/493.jpg Agreed. Lately I feel like I'm back in Arizona <inside joke>. Dozens of useless posts per day cause m...

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:35 pm NWS is already mentioning the "C" word for next week's system.

Hoping for some decent rains this Friday.

What is the “c” word?

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:05 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:56 am House temp down to 57. Very slow and spotty internet. This is not any fun at all now. What a miserable sloppy icy mess. Boo hiss!

Come on spring!!!

Ours got all the way down to 46. Talk about suck...

Yep. Got down to 42 at mine yesterday am. Could see my own breath. Hang in there.