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The dry pattern wont be here for long. While no significant rain is on the horizon scattered thunderstorms seem possible starting this weekend and going into next week as we sit on the western edge of a trough of low pressure over the southeast and precipitable waters increase to over 2 inches. The ...

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]... Texas will remain under a general height weakness pattern between two weaker West and East Coast ridges. A regional high moisture channel of greater than 1.7 inc...

Yeah we need to watch that heavy plume of moisture that's sitting offshore by Brownsville which looks to be a small tropical disturbance.That could produce locally heavy rain as it moves north, especially for those west of I-45.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 122 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020 Areas affected...Southeast Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 240522Z - 241145Z Summary...Thunderstorms will expand in coverage this morning and produce local...

Kinda cool that the EURO Tropical ensembles are picking up on the cyclogenisis of the system. It looks like a low to mid level circulation develops and being so close to the gulf it taps into the moisture and behaves somewhat like an "inland depression". A similar system affected Louisiana back in A...

Models show the blob moving off to the east/dissipating by the time the disturbance comes in tonight.I expect most areas to get at least 1 inch of rain.It looks like minor cyclogenesis starts to happen with tonight's disturbance as it enters southeast Texas and starts to slow down, a core rain event...

Tonight's 0z models seem to be having a hard time agreeing when it comes to which area ends up as the "bullseye" of heaviest QPF . But several of them show someone in the southern half of the state getting a copious amount of rain due to what looks to be a possible core rain event setup. We'll have ...

18z GFS has flipped towards the Euro.

The air mass should recover by tomorrow from the influx of moisture from the gulf due to the onshore flow.But Wednesday/Thursday seems to be the days this week that have the best chances of heavy rain.

We need to watch Wednesday/Thursday as the 12z models show a pretty potent disturbance moving into Southeast Texas and slowing down over the area.