Latest Recon pass has central pressure down to 992mb. 38 miles South of Key West, FL. Motion looks to be WNW.

A good resource to use now is Dr. Ryan Maue's Twitter feed. Some of you know his WeatherBell models site (still free). He is putting up animation model runs almost as soon as they come out.

TS in the Gulf...Of course it was bound to happen...Leaving tomorrow for a week in Galveston...

Looks like we've entered stage 2 of Storm Watch Syndrome: Guidance Model Ping-Pong.

God knows we need the rain, but if the model choices are Mex vs La. At this time I'll take Mex. I'm a Firefighter in Austin and we cannot take another near miss to the East. Central Texas, like most of Texas, is a tenderbox waiting to explode. At least a Mex strike will keep the winds out of the SE ...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:34Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011 Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 5 Observation Number: 08 A. Ti...

The last 30 mins of radar loop shows a definite westward movement.

There is absolutely no moisture to work with on the western side.

Looking at the visible loop...the western vortex seems to be dominate right now with the convection to the west starting to fire, and wrap around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Looks like the WP-3D Orion "Kermit" just penetrated the large LLC around 25.8N and 90.7W. He's on his outbound leg to the SW. Do the Orion missions send vortex messages?

Yes...stay positive. With the exception of HWRF...all the early and late cycle models bring whatever is going to form NWward towards the TX/LA boarder, and then set around thru the 48 to 96 hr time frame. It's way to early, but I'm inclined to believe that the 1st part of that scenario is going to h...

What a night here in Round Rock! 2.3 inches in my backyard. Snow is covering the grass, holding in the trees, and blanketing the roof tops. 1st round is coming to an end May get a 2nd round about sunrise . I hope y'all get the white stuff, instead of the wet stuff over in SE Texas!

My fire station is near 6th and Lamar. Lamar is under 2 feet of water. Shoal Creek is out of its banks near 10th and Lamar. Its nuts here tonight.

1:30AM and we're still up at the fire station. One word to describe tonights events - NIGHTMARE! Widespread totals up to 10 to 12 inches. Multiple water rescues. Lives were lost tonight. Still ongoing.

Amazing rain event in Austin right now. 3 inches of rain in the last hours near Mopac and 6th street. Many water calls for water entering houses. Waller creek is out of its banks at Red River and 10th street. Training storms for the last hour and half, not end in sight. Gonna be a long night for the...

Update from Round Rock/Austin. At the fire house tonight. My wife called and told me the gauge was full; thats 5 inches in East Round Rock. Crazy shift in downtown Austin. Fires, wrecks, water calls, ect... Had about 3.5 inches in the West Austin area. Hoping a core rain event happens someplace else...

1.16 inches of rain as of 9:30A in east Round Rock, coming down pretty good.

The Isla Grand Beach resort on South Padre Island via Weatherbug reporting station: Gust - 90mph ESE, Rain - 6.03. Take it for what it's worth.

I would say that radar (wundermap) look to be showing landfall within the next hour or sooner near El Rabon, MX.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

srainhoutx wrote:It certainly could stay over water longer. Let's see if this is a trend or a eye wobble. Edit to add RECON has departed.

YES....recon has left the building. Anyone look to see if another is on tap?