HRRR with a PDS TOR sounding at 1am for us. WHEEEE

Upgrade to a Moderate risk now to our NW

I know its early, but it looks like the next few cold bursts get shunted off to the east.

18Z GFS already coming in a few degrees colder.

Icon looks about the same as 12Z

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:13 pm Latest GFS looks great for mid February!!

For the past few days I have bee noticing it wants to release a cold dump somewhere in the US around the Valentines Day period.

Email from Jeff - Metro area will be added to winter weather advisory.

I still think Friday morning is our best shot at anything frozen. The GEFS has about half the members showing something now.

I’ve been noticing the possibility of something Friday morning. On the gfs there is still available moisture and some energy passing by from the SW. the GFS is t producing precip right now but the ingredients are there.

Landfall just a hair west of the 6Z GFS

and the 12z GFS is rolling....

12z GFS operational loses 97L around Cuba but the ensemble has some members keeping it through the Gulf around the end of next week.

Euro goes way east - central LA coast.

Looks like it’s starting to moisten up some of that dry air around the circulation.

Well the 16z HRRR sure takes an interesting turn for tonight

Starting to feel like it’s going to be interesting in town. On the forecast sounding from the HRRR the column is below freezing until just barely above the surface. May not be any accumulation but I’m starting to think we will see some flakes in town.

Looks like it’s starting to gain some latitude now.

Looks like recon is finding about a 12 mb drop since the 1 pm advisory. Yikes

On satellite Delta has an incredibly fast spin rate (if that is a real thing) I can’t recall seeing cloud tops spin around the center that fast.

Id like this too. But I also get that the link says it’s expired