Search found 1489 matches
- Sun Apr 28, 2024 6:46 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: April 2024
- Replies: 442
- Views: 54187
Re: April 2024
Possibee large wedge tornado up near Madisonville.
- Fri Mar 15, 2024 7:31 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: March 2024
- Replies: 362
- Views: 53352
Re: March 2024
Try and post pics later. Lost a 35-40 ish foot oak tree that was in the front yard. Thankfully it cleanly missed the house. But snagged two of the cars in the driveway that weren't in the garage.
- Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:23 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: January 2024
- Replies: 1566
- Views: 121176
Re: January 2024
Left to play some disc golf at Shadow Creek in sweats, long sleeve shirt and my Aggie pullover with a hand warmer for good measure. Ended up in shorts and a t shirt and a breaking a solid sweat half way through. Good stuff. lol.
- Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:33 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: January 2024
- Replies: 1566
- Views: 121176
Re: January 2024
Natty futures have been on the rise for the last week or so when the models were hinting a potential outbreak. Only put part of the kids inheritance on some contracts. :) Miss the old days when there weren't so many hedge funds and banks that didn't employ traders that specifically followed longer t...
- Thu Aug 17, 2023 2:09 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Euro has been slowly 'caving' to the gfs and canadian with whatever vorticity there is more towards the central/southern edge of the axis. 12z is around Matagorda Bay with some rain s of 10 and into centex. Currently looking like the best possible outcome. Only glimmer of hope is that both the Euro ...
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:17 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary. It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z. Where site are you using? Hard to find a view larg...
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:02 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary.
It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.
It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 2:08 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
0z Euro changes things up a little. Big shift n before it enters the Gom and then moves due w near New Orleans and across La. into Beaumont with some decent vorticity but not fully organized.
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 12:32 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Well the long range 0z gfs is going to end up entertaining with that setup.
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 8:13 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-launches-new-hurricane-forecast-model-as-atlantic-season-starts-strong Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 showed a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to NOAA’s existing hurricane models. HAFS is as good as NOAA’s existing h...
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:50 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
They typically won't make this an invest this early but it would sure be nice if they would. I'm very curious on what the new HAFS (which became the operational hurricane model in late June) shows.
I touched on it last year....
I touched on it last year....
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:34 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
thats a pretty large development zone Well of course it is. That's exactly what the modeling has been showing so far with different focal points up and down the axis as it enters the GoM. Until today Euro was on the northern end and the gfs and canadian on the southern end. Steering as of now seems...
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:54 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
18z gfs is at least a little similar to the 6z run. Still behaves more like an axis/disturbance as it tries to develop as it approaches the lower and middle texas coast where it would at least give them some relief. More likely some overrunning clouds and a few sprinkle for coastal counties s of 10....
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 6:01 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Probably the 'strongest' run yet by the 6z GFS. Looks to briefly try and close off into a weak and disorganized depression as it nears the mid to lower Texas coast early next week. 0z Euro was further n with a disorganized mess and decent rain totals for the upper and mid Texas coast. Probably a day...
- Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:16 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Still a week out but hard to argue against the continuing model agreement for the disturbance that will be moving from the eastern GoM.
12z Euro is weaker with the reflection early on off of Florida but becomes stronger as it approaches the Texas coast.
12z Euro is weaker with the reflection early on off of Florida but becomes stronger as it approaches the Texas coast.
- Sat Aug 12, 2023 10:02 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 100367
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
What does that mean?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:18 pm Yikes im seeing a few 33 celcius readings starting to show up in the gulf thats about 91-92 degrees
- Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:50 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: April 2023
- Replies: 562
- Views: 111193
- Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:42 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: December 2022
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 234170
Re: December 2022
I’m going to be taking some ITM BOIL options with a 12/16 expiration first thing tomorrow morning. I expect to make a quick buck on these. Puts or calls? I noticed one of your posts recently musing that a snap back was weather related but it was likely an organic quick rally with natty recently dow...
- Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:42 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 107877
Re: September 2022
So here's the bad news as everyone wakes up this morning.... 6z GFS continues its rather substantial w trend with a large cat 3/4 about 200 mi e and s of Matagorda and Cameron moving n and making landfall just e of Cameron. Here's the good news - It's still in the 10 day range and almost guaranteed ...
- Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:59 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2022
- Replies: 457
- Views: 107877
Re: September 2022
0z GFS continues to trend w ever so slightly. Comes off the YP again n of Merida and gets just w of Grand Isle before crawling in the central gulf through hr 213. Windfield is off the charts. Coastal flooding would be an issue for the upper texas coast even with it that far away. Slow movement nnw a...