93l actually looks healthy all things considering and the center is beginning to dip a little sw as it makes its way across Florida. Hurricane models suggested this since they started running. Main energy should stay to the n but if it does tug a little further she then it may make it a little furth...

Looking at the 0Z ICON a little closer the energy is elongated much more than previous runs and why it's weaker. It does bring the bulk of the energy as it tries to consolidate off the central la coast w all the way into the upper texas coast. The two main hurricane models with their 18z runs sugges...

0z ICON has shifted a good bit w towards Houma/Morgan City and is a bit more reasonable on the strength. Slings a good bit of moisture towards the upper texas coast and east texas. Not seeing much to get a defined center all the way towards our neck of the wood but models have shifted further west t...

Early on the hurricane models are much further west with 93l and its energy. Still lacking organization.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2025 12:04 am Yeah winter is definitely over in february, definitely not looking good for any real cold intrusions, se ridge taking over, troughing in alaska, game over for winter lovers, it was fun while it lasted

Great news!

Admittedly, I haven't gone back through the posts to see if my question may have already been answered. So, forgive, if it is a repeated subject. I would like to know if there is any historic/documented evidence to support the idea that the years we get Hurricane's are the years we also get Snow? M...

Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 6:57 am Still no snow here lol

We get it.....

If that low is a little further w than what the GFS is showing then somebody from the inland counties from Corpus to Lake Charles is gonna get dumped on like 04.

2004 was completely unexpected. If I remember correctly there were some soundings out of Corpus the evening before or day of that suggested the potential for some light snow but that was about it. Advisories weren't even issued until the late afternoon and upgraded to a warning before midnight after...

12z models are a mess with 90l essentially being absorbed by the front coming down and then trying to reorganize as the energy from the wave over Belize/YP gets into the WGOM. While the TWO essentially declares 90l dead the focus from the NHC is on the other wave which has increased to 20/40. Still ...

So... Modeling is actually coming into a little better agreement. I'm still skeptical with the setup but most are showing 90l dropping further s over the next few days and getting somewhat enhanced by the wave coming from near Belize and then moving n near the coast or further offshore of n mexico a...

Kudos to the ICON....

I've been at 20 sustained with a few gusts over TS force. I'd guess they quickly upgrade the next TWO with an outside chance of a PTC even if it's in a 12-18 hr window.

18z GFS with one of its classical NSFW runs. Upper end cat 4 or 5 into Matagorda Bay. Still way out there in the long range....

Our little area just of the coast gets a mention in the latest outlook - two_atl_2d0.png 1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Tex...

Looks like we're going to enter a stretch to keep an eye out on the disturbance that's still a good ways from entering the Caribbean. Guidance in the mid range is at least getting something all the way into the central part and not getting picked up/recurve. Long range gets it to just s/n of Jamaica...

12z ICON just got interesting in a hurry.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2024 10:01 pm We really don’t wanna see a storm get into the Gulf right now…yikes!

Psst....

We just had one. Went by the name of Hurricane Debby. Still had issues making it to a hurricane.

Scott747 maybe like an imelda last second wrap up? No TS but kinda similar situation where a low briefly closes off before moving inland Nah. Imelda had a little better environment to organize. This situation never looked that promising. Meanwhile the 12z Euro is the third run in a row to show a po...

Scott747 maybe like an imelda last second wrap up? No TS but kinda similar situation where a low briefly closes off before moving inland Nah. Imelda had a little better environment to organize. This situation never looked that promising. Meanwhile the 12z Euro is the third run in a row to show a po...

12z Euro and 18z GFS both hint at trying to make the coastal low into a TD at the last minute around Matagorda Bay. Might increase coastal flooding and winds on the outside chance it happens. Something to keep an eye on.