Looks like it gets 'captured' as it makes an initial landfall at Port Isabel.

0z GFS is going to be further n....

A bunch of upper level data obtained out ahead of Beryl this afternoon should help with the short range guidance and where Beryl comes off the YP. Likely made it in to the 0z models tonight so hopefully they reflect if there is a change in the cards. This will be crucial to how far up the coast it c...

No change with the 4pm advisory. Landfall just n of La Playita.

Only slight adjustment on the track with the 10 pm advisory.

As expected the upper level synoptic data from yesterday and today has helped with the short and mid range guidance.

Would need to see some further n trends in the 0z guidance to adjust the track.

They are both slower allowing more time to gain lat as they feel any weakness.

Both of the new hurricane models, HAFS-A and HAFS-B, are coming in further n after exiting the YP.

Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall. GFS is back to fully decoupling the low and mid-level centers. If that type of situation plays out a landfall across Central Mexico is likely Noticed some ...

Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall.

18z GFS may get pulled further nw..... Gonna be ac close call.

Ends up being a fairly decent shift n on the 12z Euro....

12z Euro is coming in a tad further n.

Clear shift s with the 12z GFS. Looks like the 6z hurricane models. We're almost past the Jamaica breakpoint and now look at where it crosses the YP. Key will be as it leaves Jamaica behind and turns a little more w for a time, or if it gains some lat. In the meantime the 12z GFS is beginning to get...

12z GFS exits the YP to the s at a pretty good clip compared to the 6z.

Fairly good jump with the 6z GFS. Tugs nnw as it nears landfall around Rockport. Also continues to develop 96l, this time as a strong tropical storm between High Island and Sabine Pass. Second run in a row that it shows a Fujiwhara effect between the remnants of Beryl and developing 96l. 0z hurrican...

For those wondering 'What the hell is he talking about?" Run a loop of the 850 vort. As the remnants of Beryl retrogrades back to the sw and 96l attempts to organize as it approaches the upper texas coast they rotate around each other. Really fascinating stuff even if it's almost certain not to...

Don't see that very often in the modeling world.

Fujiwhara with Beryl and 96l.

Of note. Both the 0z GFS and ICON flirt with trying to develop 96l. GFS brings the energy into the w gom in a week heading in the general direction of the middle/upper texas coast.

Oz GFS is showing signs of turning nw a little sooner after exiting the YP. 10 mb lower pressure and expanding windfield.

Smooths out to a wnw heading as it approaches n mex and the border.

Looking at the setup 0z ICON should come in between Matagorda Bay and San Luis Pass.