Pretty good flare up SE of Cameron, LA this evening...with vort moving W toward GLS Bay.

i lost all my faith in the nws forecasts back in feb 2011 . they busted that snow forecast and were very wrong. i remember the nws stating anywhere from 2-4 inches of snow? but we ended getting not one flake. all we got was freezing rain. the reason for the forecast bust is the models somehow didnt...

lets see today,,, the forecast was for a 30% chance of "scattered" showers. looking at the satellite and radar i would say that 30% forecast figure is again wrong. im seeing no more than a 1-5% coverage. but you guys will come back and tell me,well, there was a 70% chance that it wont rai...

Rip76 wrote:Maybe it's my eyes, I'm just not seeing it moving West.
Maybe I need to focus on the whole blob..

You are seeing the expansion of the cloud shield off to the north. The Slidell radar suggest a very slow W drift. Think the models are too fast in brining this wave axis to the coast...

another day ,no rain. where is this so called wetter pattern with tropical showers that everyone was talking about? seriously, david pauls futurecast didnt work too well this week. it busted. weathermen need to stop relying so much on the computer models. instead of letting them make the forecasts,...

indeed...both 12Z and 18Z runs of the GFS are really dry. Last nights 00Z and 06Z were much wetter and at least gave a glimmer of hope for some wetting rains. Of course it could switch back to wet. TX tech model was wet also, but now keeps most stuff offshore. Do not think things will moisten back u...

There are a lot of ensemble members from various global models in the BOC. Much of the Gulf is in play at the moment from a system that is still 4-5 days from forming. The "new" forecasting...or trying to decide where a system will landfall and how strong 120 hours before it even forms.

I totally agree with you Ed. I hate the thought of anyone flooding, but the rain would be so beneficial!! The central Texas lakes would also like their share. Travis is at 623ft. The record low from 1951 is 618ft. That is so sad to hear!! :cry: We need rain so bad but not in the form of a hurricane...

Model chatter continues to indicate possible tropical development in the GOM next weekend. Add a weak August front moving into the N Central GOM this week and my concern has been increased. Alicia 1983 developed from a weak front and disturbance that move offshore of Alabama. Lots potential energy ...

There does appear to be some "spin" near Panama, but looks to be on the Pacific side along the ITCZ. Given the uptick in model agreement on something trying to spin up late this week...it does seem there is at least decent potential for a tropical system in the W Caribbean and/or Gulf. Mos...

Would like to hear thoughts on the last 6 summers in C. Texas. Since records have been kept (150+ years), the average number of 100 degrees days is 12 per summer. We're on track to average 50 days of 100 degrees or hotter over this 6 year period, 2008-2013. Thankfully, we've had some rain this spri...

The warmer temperatures of 2011 tended to have more to do with the parched ground than the dewpoint/RH. Dry grounds result in fast warm ups and much warmer temperatures. Just enough rain this spring and summer to keep the temperatures in some what of a check....but as the ground continues to dry mor...

this is a big joke. its too hot and too humid and we dont have enough rainfall. srain has said over and over this isnt a repear of 2011. i beg to differ. and another thing i dont like is the attempted explanations for the weathing thats going on. ptarmigan comes up with these anomilies and other at...

Only thing I know it is getting horribly dry at my house since I got no rainfall in July. No real break in the ridging for the near term and even the long term...maybe some seabreeze stuff this weekend, but that is so hit and miss and I know I will be on the miss side of that. Pattern just keeps rep...

Not a drop at my house since this all began over a week ago. Still just as dry a it was the first week of July. At least many are seeing some rain.

Note: that many models develop the next wave behind Chantal. Early season development in this region is likely an ominous foreshadowing of what is to come out of the deep tropics this season.

Higher PW air is reaching the coast as noted by showers across the nearshore waters. Coastal areas should see overnight development keep streaming inland and then die out. Areas south of I-10 look wet on Sunday...areas to the north of I-10 are more questionable. Still concerned that the blow up of o...

Ok, now Im confused. Why does NWS Corpus show this low moving inland south of Corpus and NWS Houston shows the low moving inland around Galveston? How can two NWS locations side by side show something so different? Is it coming onshore near Corpus or Houston? Im confused! corpus.PNG houston.PNG CRP...

Coordinated call between NHC and WPC today was downplaying development. It is going to be messy whatever possibly becomes something in the western Gulf with the interactions of a tropical wave and upper level trough. Those set ups tend to be sloppy lopsided systems. Aside: fire danger will be very h...

indeed. Models picked up on this last week then dropped it out. Moisture surge today and tomorrow. I would probably go with 30% today and again on Monday before upper ridging takes a brief foothold. Toward the weekend the ridge may retreat far enough NW to allow NE upper level flow and and disturban...