I'm just going to go out on a limb here.... In Wharton County and having a parade in El Campo, any chance to see a lil snow flurry? Also, will rain be an issue between 5-9pm? I asked a day or so ago, but want to hear your thoughts now that we are getting close. Temperatures a few thousand feet abov...

18Z GFS is a problem for Harris County has IAH falling below freezing on Saturday and staying there into Sunday. This would shift the freezing rain threat southward. Still not really worried just yet as amounts look light and temperatures 31-32 on the 18Z run...also this is the first run to show thi...

I see nothing in last night's GFS to indicate any frozen precip or very cold temps here through 15 days. I do see temps near 80 next week and then a light freeze next weekend (no precip). http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs0znov28.gif http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsext0znov28.gif Long range...

Dear Jeff, Ed or anyone it may concern: Forecast models see a strong upper level storm system centered over Nebraska with strong winds diving into the Southern and Central Plains. It's a favoriable pattern for severe weather (unfortunately) and it will probably be an active day to our north. BUT: A...

careful what you wish for!

Starting to look like a fairly classic flash flood event with the front slowing more and more and possibly stalling with both EPAC tap and Gulf tap and red flags raised with PWS at +2SD.

i have a question how many tropical storms or hurricanes have hit hgx agre from BOC? The Bay of Campeche does not like to give up its tropical cyclones. It takes some pretty strong troughing to reach down a grab a TC in that area...Opal 95 is an example. Those troughs tend to not be around until Oc...

I dont see any recon data yet suggesting a TS. Found 1003mb surface pressure, but fairly weak winds...around 20-30kts.

Thank you, Jeff. For now, I'll trust the GFS. Anyone with me on that? I would not recommend putting all your eggs in one basket or all your support behind one model. In forecasting a consensus is the best course of action and sometimes even that is not correct for the final outcome. With that said ...

No to both questions!

Looks like a pretty good bet for TC formation late this week in the BOC. While most model guidance ends the system in MX south of TX there is enough spread in the ensemble members to raise at least an eye along the TX coast. Additionally, if the system is slower developing, a trough will be moving i...

Not very organized just yet...with the LLC way out west of the "deep convection" Think it will struggle to get through the E Caribbean with any significant development...may see much better potential in the western Caribbean Sea toward the middle to end of the week. Steering pattern will b...

Jeff, Thanks so much for all you do on this board. We appreciate it. One last question, what is your long range forecasts telling you? Any fronts coming in September or just climo? The temperature trend is downward per climo. Main question is do we get any tropical system in the next 3 weeks before...

djmike wrote:What about the Beaumont area JEFF? Can we expect an increase in showers tonight as well?

Decent shot for some quick moving showers (50/50)....but think the best chances will be from Galveston Bay SW toward Matagorda Bay in association with the inland movement of the vort south of Sabine Pass.

HRRR is very wet tonight starting around midnight from GLS to Sugar Land to Wharton. TX Tech is also showing a good bit of activity but it is displaced a little more to the north. Think the HRRR is on the correct line of thinking with its QPF placement. Could get some decent training if it verifies ...

For us in Northeast Harris County, it will be widely hit and miss? Looks that way...but I think NE Harris has a better chance than say Waller County...tend to get a little more activity up into E and NE Harris in these type of patterns. Main action will be from Winnie to Pearland to Wharton southwa...

Jeff, I noticed today that the short range meso guidance has been rather insistent on moving a vort max inland along Galveston/Brazoria Counties. This may bode well for those along and S of the I-10 Corridor. It should...just depends on if the short range guidance has the right location and the con...

Jeff what is keeping this system from moving onshore. The moisture axis is just taking its time...but it is also fighting drying from the north. Additionally, tropical air masses like and tend to focus their convection over the water in the early morning hours and this pattern tends to "rob&qu...

As I pointed out yesterday...most models were keeping the heavy stuff offshore and that has been what was happening to our east with this feature...and today has been no different Now tonight the meso models fire up activity very near the coast and in Galveston Bay so those south of I-10 probably s...

As I pointed out yesterday...most models were keeping the heavy stuff offshore and that has been what was happening to our east with this feature...and today has been no different Now tonight the meso models fire up activity very near the coast and in Galveston Bay so those south of I-10 probably st...

00Z HRRR might have the right idea, but its vort energy looks slightly too far south per LCH radar trends. Anyhow if develops stuff along the coast and sends it inland to about US 59...lots of development shown off the LA coast...still think Monday AM will be the best shot.