This summer is a supercharged version of the 1998 anomaly. When we flipped from La Niña to El Niño, there was a major heat dump from the ocean. About 80% of the heat storage from CC is in the oceans. Yeah, there are definitely parallels regarding this 2022-2023 summer dry period and the 1998-2000 m...

After seeing some recent posts regarding El Nino and summer weather in Texas, I decided to take a look at things and found this writeup below from the NWS Brownsville/RGV office. In short, it's quite possible that this summer in Texas was hot and dry precisely because of the El Nino (or rather, the ...

But, you’re avoiding the criticism. Folks ignored a clear forecast for what they wanted to happen only to gripe and complain about a forecast that wasn’t incorrect. I didn't ignore that part of your statement. It's just that when you mentioned "changes on the forum over the years," I thou...

Our history in southeast Texas is full of extremes - well before our time. Meaningless tripe because even factoring in all those extremes, Houston just recorded its confirmed hottest summer on record (as per Matt Lanza on Space City Weather). That's on top of record highs obliterated along the Gulf...

My critique was more of some of the other comments on this board. It’s not the same place it used to be, I guess. It's pretty obvious why: Look back at the old-times when this board was founded (sometime in the 2000s decade): the climate patterns in SE TX were much milder/more agreeable in that per...

To be honest, the graphic still does not show rain everywhere… in fact it implies isolated coverage. There was a legitimate risk of severe weather - just on an isolated basis. Damage was reported with today’s storms. There could have, maybe, been more emphasis on the expected isolated nature. Then ...

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 6:36 pm Granted I don't live in the area any more, but I'm curious why some seem to have been under the impression they were guaranteed rain today? This seemed like a classic low quantity, higher intensity day? It also seemed to be messaged that way?

Here's why:

I feel like the models have been worse than normal. All these models are garbage, even the CAM mesocales. Look at what the latest models (even rapid-refresh HRRR) were showing regarding this late morning (10 and 11AM time frames). And compare that to the much more developed complex going quite stro...

LOL at the futurecasts that are completely wrong as usual. Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast? Nope. Off to the northeast like every other time. I've tried to be as hopeful as possible. But to be perfectly honest, I'm losing all faith in these weather forecasters, they all suck. Doe...

The radar isn’t that impressive for 3pm. Most of the activity is up to the northeast. What’s new?!? I don't get it either. The NWS, even "No Hype" Space City Weather kept mentioning good storms throughout the area today. Inner Loop Houston has had some good rain rounds, as did Galveston c...

Hmmm... 000 FXUS64 KHGX 051134 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Deep, low-level onshore flow will keep the mid/lower atmosphere very moist today. PWs are expected to range ...

It's WAY too dry for any of the scattered few areas to contribute anything at all to surrounding areas that didn't get anything. A foot of rain could fall and most of the land would look dry in a single day. I think if that happened most of it would be runoff because the ground is too hard and it w...

While quite scattered compared to what occured northeast around Lufkin (and then into areas of Louisiana), storm coverage was rather decent today in SE Texas. Still should be good chances tomorrow and Wednesday. Regardless of whether or not you got rain today, there is actually one very good silver-...

I read the forecast discussion as far east as New Orleans (LIX), and even they expressed dissapointment/lack of confidence regarding convection the past few days underperforming their expectations. I notice looking at radar that Acadiana into New Orleans area has been rather dry-slotted so far (in b...

1/4” of measurable rain. Thankful but nowhere enough to make a dent in this horrible SETX drought. The storm coverage started out strong around your area+Acadiana coastal region. But now the bulk of activity seems to have shifted north to the northeast Piney Woods in areas like Lufkin (as of now). ...

The immediate coast at Brazoria + Galveston counties (including Galveston Island) represents a good microclimate that stay relatively wet and humid throughout these prolonged-dry spells: if nothing else, the area maintains high dewpoints that mitigates the worst of dessication/wildfire threats that ...

The activity yesterday was more than what many of the CAM mesocales were showing, actually. We'll see what happens today through Tuesday.

Those expansive clay "vertisols" are the most useless soil order ever. They plague the eastern-half of Texas in both the "Blacklands" and the "Gulf Coast plains" and they are good for nothing other than wrecking properties, foundations, gardening potentials, etc. Contra...

There are small chances that areas south of I-10 snag a brief storm today/tomorrow. Otherwise, we'll have to wait until at least Labor Day weekend for better chances to return.

They had some decent drought-denting rains throughout Louisiana yesterday and overnight. Nada for us in Galveston Co. 😡 cp17 mentioned it earlier, but I really think that southern half Texas as a whole really doesn't benefit well from anything other than a good hit regarding a tropical cyclone/east...