The other thing I forgot to mention - and a main point - is that starting east of here and especially down into Florida, the whole atmospheric column is truly tropical. We’re just far enough west for the column to be tainted by the Mexican plateau and the Texas death ridges. In those tropical air c...

Appreciate the insight and makes total sense. Seems like to get sustaining storms (which really comes to play out west and the panhandle) is having a front, dry line, or similar boundary to carry and maintain convection. There’s the added benefit of sea breeze, tropical waves, and back door fronts ...

What is causing this rain, though? The discussion mentions inverted trough, but why is the activity initializing from the north (rather than from the Gulf as typical with inverted troughs)?

Yeah we have been pretty lucky in Beaumont. Think we have stayed below 100 this except maybe once or twice so far. I think cause were so close to the coast. Yes it DID storm today. Lol. Im afraid to mention it now cause so many have been without. Lol. Hopefully everyone will see some rain this comi...

Not picking on Beaumont (well, kinda) but it would be nice if they weren't the only ones getting rain lately. I hope this stuff holds up and pushes on through. Rosharon doesn't seem too far away from central Houston (@Hobby Airport) that I usually keep track of. Looks like some solid storms headed ...

Central/"Inner Loop" Houston, including Hobby, hasn't been too bad in the rainfall department so far this July. Still the solid inch+ from the beginning of July, along with decent storms over the past week (including right now).

The Latest GFS is trending wetter over the next 10-12 days, models are in agreement that the high will break up next week, leasing to daily rain chances, id say about 30-40% right now Correct. The 12zGFS also continues this juicer trend. You can see the Gulf is finally starting to wake up with deep...

Shouldn't humidity in the air decrease evapotranspiration? If so, then the desiccation of plants should technically be slowed here with the 70°F+ dewpoints even in long periods without rain — and I don't understand the presence of wildfires given Red Flag criteria of ~30% or less relative humidity (...

Looking at precip maps makes it look like the ridge is deadlocked over the state (i.e. due to low totals). But looking at the actual patterns on the models actually isn't bad at all — the ridge overall seems to take on a more "Bermuda" configuration going into August, which is better for r...

The Gulf isn’t really dead. It provides plenty of wet weather from LA through FL. It’s just the way the jet stream and upper level winds are steered, the higher pwats are east of us more consistently and we get stuck with arid Mexican desert like air. Also forgot to mention — I do agree with you up...

Just need to get La Niña out of here and we need to have a major crash of the SOI. I've noticed trends in models taking the ridge to more of a "Bermuda" dominance later this week starting Friday/Saturday, rather than centered out in the Southwest/Intermountains like it has been the past f...

Just need to get La Niña out of here and we need to have a major crash of the SOI. Am hearing that El Nino is unlikely to return until late 2023, so we can look forward to another year of no spring and boilerplate dry summer. I don't know, it's conflicting — Larry Cosgrove says that lots of El Nino...

The Gulf isn’t really dead. It provides plenty of wet weather from LA through FL. It’s just the way the jet stream and upper level winds are steered, the higher pwats are east of us more consistently and we get stuck with arid Mexican desert like air. EML is a factor with westerly dominated regimes...

I hear ya. Once the youngest graduates we are selling our Texas holdings and moving everything to Florida. I’m done. I concur, the SE US in/adjacent to Florida is the last bastion of good climate in this country. Sea-level rise concerns must be dealt with though, or the US will no longer have any g...

Summers like this just reemphasize why I will not retire here. The weather in SE Texas is terrible for 3/4 of the year. The real problem in SE Texas is the otherwise great climate (via averages) interfered by extremes via deviations — the bottom just drops too heavily. The handful of useless freezi...

Not pretty 2FF6D589-6518-437C-93C5-24484CA4FAFD.jpeg I hate to say it but ill gladly take a weak tropical storm or weak hurricane in august, thats going to be the only way we break this awful patter I've done some thinking, and now realize that widespread rainfall through a season is much superior ...

Going back to sentiments earlier, the dryness is only as sustained as it is because the Gulf is a very dead ocean. If the Gulf were even remotely active, then the ascent (and resulting moisture depth) would have no issues eating holes in the ridge, even with the cap/subsidence. Instead, you have who...

The 18zGFS so far shows exactly the kind of "reshuffling" needed to bust this drought. Regardless of whatever totals the models show, the overall pattern change is still ideal. But if bad luck continues, models are going to pop yet another Eastern US trough in future runs, which amplifies/...

Nice heavy downpour here (i.e. around Richmond and Fulshear area). Good rain in Sugar Land as well.

^^^ Wow, you're right, lots of cells suddenly popping up. And I don't think the sea-breeze has even come through yet...